Dr. Bob’s Week 8 NFL Survivor Strategy
Welcome back to Dr. Bob’s Weekly Survivor Strategy blog. We almost lost our final Circa Survivor entry on the Broncos (our Contrarian pick), who scored 33 points in the 4th quarter – and needed all of them – with live win probability falling to as low as 0.7% per Next Gen Stats. The Chiefs, our EE-favorite pick, rolled to an easy win over the Raiders, bringing our combined overall record for the year on suggested picks to 11-3 (5-2 on EE-favorite, 6-1 on Contrarian). We are still down to our final Circa Survivor entry (out of an original 10), with an equity value of ~$4,400.
As the saying goes: “Survive and Advance,” and we will look to continue advancing this week. Here are our picks:
Our EE-Optimal Selection: The Indianapolis Colts (vs. TEN)
(Win Prob: 92%, Pick Prob: 32%)
Only 39% of remaining entries have not yet selected the Indy, and we expect the majority of those folks to pick the Colts this week. With 39% as an absolute upper limit on Pick Probability, the Colts are EE-favorites in almost every field scenario this week. If you have the Colts, we recommend using them (we already picked them in Week 5). This is likely their easiest remaining matchup for the rest of the year.
The Contrarian Play: The New England Patriots (vs. CLE)
(Win Prob: 73%, Pick Prob: 9%)
Unlike last week with the Broncos, the Patriots do not have any major statistical matchup advantages versus the Browns, and our analytics are generally in line with the market prediction for this game. The Patriots do have one of the easiest remaining schedules, and the large number of Circa Survivor-playable spots in coming weeks means that it is unlikely that they command a large portion of the field this week. Also, while the Pats may not have a statistical matchup advantage, we do project some potential play calling advantages for New England, especially on offense.
For more information about the games this week, check out our NFL Free Analysis page, or subscribe for access to our Best Bets of the week!
The 90% Optimal Portfolio
For details on our selection strategy for our 90% Optimal Portfolio, see our Week 1 Blog Post and our Week 4 Blog Post.
| Selection | Team |
| 1 | IND |
| 2 | NE |
| 3 | IND |
| 4 | ATL |
| 5 | CIN |
| 6 | KC |
| 7 | IND |
| 8 | PHI |
| 9 | KC |
| 10 | BUF |
Since we don’t have the Colts available for our last remaining entry, we are again going with our Contrarian Pick of the week:
| Team | Num |
| NE | 1 |
Appendix:
Expected Team Pick Probability for Week 5 in Circa Survivor:
| Team | Predicted Pick % | Team | Predicted Pick % |
| IND | 32.1% | GB | 0.1% |
| ATL | 23.7% | DAL | 0.1% |
| CIN | 16.2% | MIA | 0.1% |
| NE | 9.0% | MIN | 0.1% |
| PHI | 6.9% | CHI | 0.1% |
| KC | 6.6% | TEN | 0.1% |
| BUF | 5.2% | NYG | 0.0% |
| TB | 2.5% | CAR | 0.0% |
| LAC | 1.6% | NYJ | 0.0% |
| BAL | 1.5% | PIT | 0.0% |
| DEN | 0.4% | ARI (BYE) | 0.0% |
| SF | 0.4% | JAX (BYE) | 0.0% |
| HOU | 0.3% | DET (BYE) | 0.0% |
| CLE | 0.2% | LAR (BYE) | 0.0% |
| WAS | 0.1% | LV (BYE) | 0.0% |
| NO | 0.1% | SEA (BYE) | 0.0% |
| NO PICK | 0.001% |