Dr. Bob’s Week 7 NFL Survivor Strategy
Welcome back to Dr. Bob’s Weekly Survivor Strategy blog. Last week was chalky, with only two major upsets – Philly lost on Thursday at the Giants, and Washington lost Sunday vs the Bears. Unfortunately, Our EE-optimal pick of the week was on the Eagles (the other, our Contrarian play on LAC, won against the Dolphins), which brings our overall record on suggested picks to 9-3 (4-2 on EE-Favorite, 5-1 on Contrarian). We have been on the wrong end of some value plays so far this year, and we are now down to our final entry out of our starting 10, with an equity value of ~$4,250.
On to our picks for the week:
Our EE-Optimal Selection: The Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LV)
(Win Prob: 90%, Pick Prob: 35%)
Kansas City is slated to be the most popular selection this week, but we think there is enough value to justify selecting them. With Rashee Rice returning from suspension and Xavier Worthy getting healthier, Mahomes now has access to his full stable of weapons for the first time this season. Beyond that, the Chiefs match up favorably against the Raiders across a variety of statistical categories. Kansas City does play on both the shortened Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks, which is one of the only reasons we don’t see more than half the remaining entries selecting the Chiefs this week.
If the field ends up being 50%+ on the Chiefs, there is little to no EE value, so make sure you are adjusting your selection strategy depending on your beliefs about how the field will pick.
The Contrarian Play: The Denver Broncos (vs. NYG)
(Win Prob: 75%, Pick Prob: 6%)
Denver is coming off an ugly win abroad versus the Jets, followed by a 9-hour flight from London back to Denver. Meanwhile, the Giants are riding high after their upset victory over the Eagles on Thursday, giving them 10 days of rest and preparation.
These are exactly the types of factors that will likely cause the public to shy away from the Broncos: long international travel, a short turnaround, and they will be facing a well-rested opponent that looks to be gaining momentum. We account for all this in our weekly projections, and we still come out with a ~75% win probability for Denver. While many Circa Survivor players will avoid this spot entirely, we see an opportunity. With only 6% of entries expected to take the Broncos, there’s significant contrarian value here for those willing to go against the grain.
For more information about the games this week, check out our NFL Free Analysis page, or subscribe for access to our Best Bets of the week!
The 90% Optimal Portfolio
For details on our selection strategy for our 90% Optimal Portfolio, see our Week 1 Blog Post and our Week 4 Blog Post.
| Selection | Team |
| 1 | KC |
| 2 | DEN |
| 3 | GB |
| 4 | DET |
| 5 | KC |
| 6 | NE |
| 7 | PIT |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | SEA |
| 10 | DET |
We are deciding to ride with our Contrarian Pick of the week for our last remaining entry:
| Team | Num |
| DEN | 1 |
Appendix:
Expected Team Pick Probability for Week 5 in Circa Survivor:
| Team | Predicted Pick % | Team | Predicted Pick % |
| KC | 34.6% | CIN | 0.2% |
| NE | 26.9% | DAL | 0.1% |
| CHI | 15.3% | NYJ | 0.1% |
| PIT | 9.0% | ATL | 0.1% |
| DEN | 6.1% | TB | 0.1% |
| GB | 4.8% | MIA | 0.1% |
| CLE | 1.0% | NYG | 0.1% |
| SEA | 0.9% | TEN | 0.1% |
| CAR | 0.8% | MIN | 0.0% |
| DET | 0.8% | NO | 0.0% |
| LA | 0.7% | JAX | 0.0% |
| LAC | 0.6% | LV | 0.0% |
| SF | 0.6% | HOU | 0.0% |
| PHI | 0.3% | ARI | 0.0% |
| IND | 0.2% | BAL (BYE) | 0.0% |
| WAS | 0.2% | BUF (BYE) | 0.0% |
| NO PICK | 0.001% |