Dr. Bob’s Week 5 NFL Survivor Strategy
Welcome back to Dr. Bob’s Weekly Survivor Strategy blog. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, have a perfect 8-0 record across recommended survivor picks – 4-0 on EE-favorite and 4-0 on Contrarian – with EE-favorite New England walloping Carolina and Contrarian LA Rams benefitting from a lucky fumble-should-have-been-touchdown and a TD-saving holding call on their way to a close win over Indy. That’s part of the magic of Circa Survivor: in order to make a deep run, you have to be both smart and lucky.
It was another chalky week, with the only major upsets being the Giants over the Chargers and the tie between Green Bay and Dallas (a tie counts as a loss in Circa Survivor), both of which we avoided. We move on from last week with all 7 of our original 10 entries, which have a combined equity value of ~$10,550.
The main storylines of the week don’t even involve who won or lost, but instead who got injured. The Giants’ leading receiver, Malik Nabers, suffered an ACL tear and is now out for the season. Those who are looking for stem cell treatment may check out stem cell pathways here. The Dolphins’ leading receiver, Tyreek Hill, dislocated his knee and is out for the season. Lamar Jackson has been ruled out with a hamstring injury (and the market adjusted 8.5 points against the Ravens). These are reminders that injuries are an inevitable part of the NFL season, and the survivor landscape can change drastically in a week. You can’t plan on players getting injured, but it will happen over the season.
This is exactly why we’ve talked about the importance of discounting future value for teams you’re “saving” for late-season or shortened weeks. Yes, you need to account for Thanksgiving and Christmas when building your strategy – after all, you still need a viable option for those weeks. But banking everything on a specific team being a lock two months (or even two weeks) from now is a dangerous game. Circumstances change, and injuries are just one part of that equation.
The Giants are an interesting case study in compounding uncertainty. Right now, we have adjusted the Giants down ~1 point with Nabers out. But what if rookie QB Jaxson Dart outperforms his expectations? Dart’s production is a complete unknown at this point, and we’ll have a much clearer picture of his capabilities as more data comes in over the next several weeks. Our adjustments for QBs are often larger than for other skill positions, so we could end up being higher on the Giants than we were before Nabers’ injury, or even more down than we are now. Every week that passes brings new information, and we must always be adjusting our assumptions.
That’s why people subscribe to our picks: we consistently outperform the market in adjusting for injuries and player expectations – that’s how we’ve stayed profitable even as the market has gotten sharper. To get our selections for this week, or subscribe for the season, click here.
On to our picks for the week:
Our EE-Optimal Selection: The Los Angeles Rams (vs. SF)
(Win Prob: 76%, Pick Prob: 18%)
The Rams were our Contrarian Pick last week, and this week they are our EE-optimal selection, facing off against the 49ers on Thursday night. Historically, many Circa Survivor entries stay away from Thursday night games, likely due to a perception of increased variance due to the shortened week. However, with all the news this week surrounding San Fransico’s injuries, combined with the unreliability of high-variance Arizona (the projected highest-picked team this week), we suspect that LAR will still account for a decent chunk of the field. Even so, we believe there is more than enough value on the Rams to outweigh other factors, and they are our EE-favorite for the week.
The Contrarian Play: The Seattle Seahawks (vs. TB)
(Win Prob: 65%, Pick Prob: 2%)
We were tempted to go with Kansas City again as this week’s contrarian pick, but we decided instead to go with the Seahawks. The tipping point for us in this game is the health of both teams, with Tampa Bay missing key starters across the board (Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, along with multiple offensive linemen and cornerbacks), while Seattle is relatively healthy. Combine that with Seattle’s home field advantage and our projection that most other Crica Survivor entries will focus on the other 2 NFC West games of the week, and we think there is a lot of contrarian value riding with the Seahawks this week.
The 90% Optimal Portfolio
For details on our selection strategy for our 90% Optimal Portfolio, see our Week 1 Blog Post and our Week 4 Blog Post.
| Selection | Team |
| 1 | LAR |
| 2 | ARI |
| 3 | DET |
| 4 | IND |
| 5 | LAR |
| 6 | SEA |
| 7 | KC |
| 8 | BUF |
| 9 | ARI |
| 10 | IND |
Since we have 7 entries remaining, this will be our portfolio:
| Team | Num |
| LAR | 2 |
| ARI | 1 |
| DET | 1 |
| IND | 1 |
| SEA | 1 |
| KC | 1 |
Appendix:
Expected Team Pick Probability for Week 5 in Circa Survivor:
| Team | Predicted Pick % | Team | Predicted Pick % |
| ARI | 24.2% | NO | 0.3% |
| IND | 17.5% | CAR | 0.3% |
| LA | 17.1% | CLE | 0.2% |
| DET | 15.3% | BAL | 0.1% |
| BUF | 7.3% | TEN | 0.1% |
| MIN | 3.1% | NYJ | 0.1% |
| SEA | 1.8% | LV | 0.1% |
| KC | 1.4% | MIA | 0.1% |
| DAL | 1.1% | JAX | 0.1% |
| DEN | 0.8% | SF | 0.1% |
| PHI | 0.8% | HOU | 0.1% |
| NYG | 0.6% | NE | 0.1% |
| LAC | 0.6% | ATL (BYE) | 0.0% |
| TB | 0.3% | CHI (BYE) | 0.0% |
| CIN | 0.3% | GB (BYE) | 0.0% |
| WAS | 0.3% | PIT (BYE) | 0.0% |
| NO PICK | 0.001% |