Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Under (47) – DALLAS vs Washington

Lean – Washington (+3)

The Dallas offensive line looked better last week after benching Terence Steele and moving Zach Martin to right tackle and Ezekiel Elliott topped 100 yards rushing yards for the first time all season. However, the Cowboys’ offensive line is still one of the worst units in the NFL without tackles Tyron Smith and La’el Collins. The Cowboys’ offensive line ranks 27^th in sacks allowed and Washington’s defense ranks 6th in pressure rate so I expect Andy Dalton to be under fire all afternoon like we saw when these teams last met in week 7. Washington’s Jimmy Moreland is conceding just 0.97 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) and the nickelback will limit CeeDee Lamb on the inside.

This Dallas defense is better with CB Trevon Diggs out and CB Chidobe Awuzie in the lineup. Diggs was surrendering 1.80 yards per cover snap, which ranks 80th out of 81 qualifying cornerbacks. Awuzie should put up at least some resistance across from WR Terry McLaurin. Alex Smith has the league’s lowest average target depth by a half yard, but short passing isn’t the way to attack the Cowboys. Dallas is the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed 200 receiving yards to opposing RBs and Washington is one of two teams to have over 100 of their targets go to running backs.

Our model favors the Cowboys by 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 43.6 points, and the matchup favors the under, as does a 764-555-16 Under situation that is 190-118-1 Under when the total is 46 points or higher. The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 46 points or higher.

Team Stats
Game Log

Football Team
Cowboys

WAS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.5 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 44.8% 44.1%
Sack Rate 8.6% 9.0%
Int Rate 2.4% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 14.1% 20.6%
Big Pass Yards 33.9% 42.6%
NYPP 5.6 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 25.9 27.0
RB YPR 4.0 3.7
Stuff Rate 17.7% 22.9%
Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 46.6%
Big Rush Yards 38.0% 42.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.5 61.5
Early Down Succ 48.8% 47.7%
Succ Rate 46.8% 45.0%
Big Yards Rate 35.8% 42.9%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 29.1
Run Ratio 39.7% 44.4%
Starting Field Pos 29.1 29.7
Game Control -3.8 3.8

Points 21.9 22.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PHI	27 – 17 W	-5.1	41.2% / 32.0%	8.8% / 16.0%	0.0% / 4.8%	4.7 / 4.2	36.1% / 35.3%	30.6% / 23.5%	2.2 / 3.4	70 / 67	42.9% / 33.3%	38.6% / 32.8%	25.1% / 61.1%	3.4 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.5%	51.4% / 25.4%	40.0 / 24.7
2	@ARI	15 – 30 L	-15.0	37.8% / 46.3%	10.8% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.4 / 6.8	60.9% / 50.0%	17.4% / 15.6%	5.1 / 5.0	60 / 73	48.9% / 48.1%	46.7% / 47.9%	44.3% / 50.7%	5.3 / 6.0	3.3% / 0.0%	38.3% / 43.8%	27.5 / 24.6
3	@CLE	20 – 34 L	-2.4	40.0% / 56.0%	7.5% / 8.0%	8.1% / 0.0%	5.2 / 5.7	50.0% / 43.2%	13.6% / 27.0%	4.7 / 4.3	62 / 62	42.0% / 51.1%	43.5% / 48.4%	37.2% / 27.7%	5.0 / 4.8	3.2% / 0.0%	35.5% / 59.7%	26.8 / 40.0
4	BAL	17 – 31 L	-11.5	41.7% / 41.7%	6.3% / 4.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	5.7 / 8.6	50.0% / 46.9%	18.2% / 15.6%	3.1 / 4.5	70 / 56	46.3% / 43.9%	44.3% / 44.6%	25.9% / 53.7%	4.9 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	31.4% / 57.1%	27.3 / 30.5
5	LA	10 – 30 L	-9.8	26.3% / 48.4%	21.1% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	1.8 / 9.7	42.9% / 40.0%	35.7% / 28.6%	2.7 / 3.7	52 / 66	36.8% / 46.9%	30.8% / 43.9%	0.0% / 59.4%	2.1 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	26.9% / 53.0%	22.6 / 31.0
6	@NYG	19 – 20 L	-4.2	48.9% / 45.0%	6.7% / 5.0%	2.4% / 5.3%	5.6 / 5.4	45.8% / 50.0%	16.7% / 23.1%	3.6 / 5.1	69 / 46	44.2% / 45.5%	47.8% / 47.8%	28.5% / 44.6%	4.9 / 5.2	1.4% / 0.0%	34.8% / 56.5%	27.4 / 35.4
7	DAL	25 – 3 W	13.9	44.4% / 35.7%	7.4% / 21.4%	0.0% / 4.5%	7.0 / 2.1	51.3% / 42.3%	10.3% / 38.5%	5.3 / 3.2	66 / 54	47.9% / 43.9%	48.5% / 38.9%	49.9% / 31.0%	6.0 / 2.6	0.0% / 0.0%	59.1% / 48.1%	27.6 / 24.3
9	NYG	20 – 23 L	-7.9	61.0% / 35.9%	4.9% / 12.8%	7.7% / 0.0%	8.9 / 4.7	44.4% / 57.1%	22.2% / 11.4%	4.1 / 4.7	50 / 74	61.9% / 50.0%	58.0% / 45.9%	54.7% / 43.1%	8.0 / 4.7	4.0% / 0.0%	18.0% / 47.3%	23.5 / 35.2
10	@DET	27 – 30 L	-9.1	54.4% / 58.8%	3.5% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.9	53.8% / 47.6%	7.7% / 23.8%	3.4 / 5.0	83 / 55	55.4% / 57.8%	54.2% / 54.5%	33.8% / 44.4%	5.6 / 6.8	1.2% / 0.0%	31.3% / 38.2%	23.5 / 26.9
11	CIN	20 – 9 W	4.6	40.7% / 43.8%	7.4% / 8.3%	4.0% / 2.3%	6.0 / 4.2	55.9% / 38.9%	11.8% / 27.8%	4.8 / 3.9	61 / 66	56.5% / 49.0%	49.2% / 42.4%	51.1% / 19.9%	5.3 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.5%	55.7% / 27.3%	34.0 / 23.5
12	@DAL	41 – 16 W	4.7	56.7% / 41.0%	10.0% / 10.3%	3.7% / 2.9%	5.2 / 4.8	50.0% / 61.1%	11.1% / 16.7%	5.1 / 3.3	66 / 57	54.0% / 55.0%	53.0% / 47.4%	43.2% / 36.4%	5.1 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.8%	54.5% / 31.6%	40.2 / 30.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	17 – 20 L	-3.4	52.4% / 56.3%	7.1% / 3.1%	0.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 8.4	59.3% / 57.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	5.0 / 3.8	69 / 72	63.0% / 57.7%	55.1% / 56.9%	30.8% / 40.3%	5.5 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 55.6%	27.1 / 29.0
2	ATL	40 – 39 W	-12.6	58.0% / 44.7%	2.0% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.9 / 7.0	64.5% / 47.1%	12.9% / 17.6%	4.0 / 3.3	81 / 72	63.1% / 43.4%	60.5% / 45.8%	46.1% / 38.2%	7.0 / 5.3	3.7% / 0.0%	38.3% / 47.2%	24.4 / 40.8
3	@SEA	31 – 38 L	-4.7	47.5% / 50.0%	3.4% / 9.1%	3.5% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.7	42.9% / 30.8%	14.3% / 23.1%	2.9 / 4.5	80 / 70	45.2% / 43.6%	46.3% / 42.9%	58.0% / 51.9%	6.5 / 5.9	1.3% / 1.4%	26.3% / 37.1%	18.9 / 32.9
4	CLE	38 – 49 L	-12.0	60.7% / 48.5%	4.9% / 6.1%	1.7% / 0.0%	7.9 / 6.1	55.6% / 72.5%	16.7% / 10.0%	4.7 / 7.7	79 / 73	60.6% / 67.8%	59.5% / 61.6%	26.3% / 46.9%	7.2 / 7.0	2.5% / 0.0%	22.8% / 54.8%	22.8 / 31.8
5	NYG	37 – 34 W	-1.6	62.9% / 40.0%	5.7% / 5.7%	3.0% / 0.0%	7.9 / 6.0	51.7% / 48.1%	20.7% / 22.2%	4.3 / 3.3	64 / 62	58.2% / 41.7%	57.8% / 43.5%	32.8% / 24.3%	6.3 / 4.8	1.6% / 1.6%	45.3% / 43.5%	23.1 / 33.2
6	ARI	10 – 38 L	-16.2	43.9% / 32.0%	5.3% / 4.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.3 / 7.1	48.1% / 71.4%	22.2% / 8.6%	3.6 / 7.5	84 / 60	43.9% / 55.6%	45.2% / 55.0%	25.0% / 71.5%	4.1 / 7.3	2.4% / 0.0%	32.1% / 58.3%	23.8 / 33.3
7	@WAS	3 – 25 L	-13.9	35.7% / 44.4%	21.4% / 7.4%	4.5% / 0.0%	2.1 / 7.0	42.3% / 51.3%	38.5% / 10.3%	3.2 / 5.3	54 / 66	43.9% / 47.9%	38.9% / 48.5%	31.0% / 49.9%	2.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	48.1% / 59.1%	24.3 / 27.6
8	@PHI	9 – 23 L	-2.1	36.4% / 37.5%	9.1% / 12.5%	0.0% / 7.1%	3.0 / 3.2	54.3% / 50.0%	34.3% / 19.2%	3.8 / 4.6	79 / 58	50.0% / 47.8%	44.3% / 43.1%	20.4% / 35.6%	3.4 / 3.8	2.5% / 3.4%	44.3% / 44.8%	33.2 / 33.6
9	PIT	19 – 24 L	4.1	42.5% / 53.3%	5.0% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.9	45.2% / 27.8%	29.0% / 22.2%	4.6 / 2.6	71 / 63	44.2% / 50.0%	43.7% / 46.0%	52.7% / 31.8%	5.1 / 5.6	1.4% / 0.0%	43.7% / 28.6%	31.5 / 30.9
11	@MIN	31 – 28 W	1.6	54.5% / 56.3%	3.0% / 6.3%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.9 / 9.5	61.3% / 65.5%	3.2% / 13.8%	5.8 / 4.3	64 / 61	62.5% / 62.0%	57.8% / 60.7%	34.0% / 53.7%	5.9 / 7.0	0.0% / 3.3%	48.4% / 47.5%	37.9 / 23.5
12	WAS	16 – 41 L	-4.7	41.0% / 56.7%	10.3% / 10.0%	2.9% / 3.7%	4.8 / 5.2	61.1% / 50.0%	16.7% / 11.1%	3.3 / 5.1	57 / 66	55.0% / 54.0%	47.4% / 53.0%	36.4% / 43.2%	4.3 / 5.1	1.8% / 0.0%	31.6% / 54.5%	30.5 / 40.2

Washington Football Team @

Dallas Cowboys

Thu, Nov 26

12:30 AM Pacific

Game Analysis