Game Analysis

Lean – SEATTLE (-6.5) over Washington

Lean – Under (44.5)

· Seattle’s 6 first downs in Baltimore last game were the lowest they’ve ever had in the Pete Carroll era, and it could be tough sledding for Geno Smith again this week.

· Washington’s defense has a 32.2% man-coverage rate (6th-highest) and Smith has struggled versus man, averaging -0.27 EPA/play compared to 0.11 EPA/play against zone coverage. Smith’s yards per attempt against man coverage is a league-low 56% of his yards per attempt versus zone.

· Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf 2.03 yards per route run (17th) but he will be contained by CB Kendall Fuller, who is conceding 0.76 yards per cover snap (14th).

· This game will come down to Commanders’ rookie Emmanuel Forbes, who had a solid game last week – allowing just 12 yards on 7 targets – but is surrendering a league-high 2.65 yards per cover snap on the season. Forbes will line up across from Seattle WR Tyler Lockett, who has a 64% success rate (2nd).

· Washington’s two recently elevated up-the-depth-chart edge rushers Casey Toohill and James Smith-Williams’ have pass-rush win rates of 2.4% and 7.2%, which both rank outside the top 80. The Commanders’ defense is 1.7 points worse without Chase Young and Montez Sweat by our numbers.

· Geno Smith will have clean pockets to look downfield for Lockett against a Washington defense allowing a 15.2% explosive pass rate (25th).

· The Commanders’ offense is trying to solve the sack problems by using more blockers and getting the ball out faster. Sam Howell has just a 2.63 second time to throw the last two games after averaging 2.87 seconds in the first 7 weeks.

· Howell started 2023 with 7 games in a row with a pressure-to-sack percentage above 20% but then he has been below 20% versus both the Eagles and Patriots.

· Howell will have collapsing pockets this week as Seahawks interior defender Jarran Reed has 21 pressures (20th) and Nick Gates ranks 31st in pass-blocking efficiency out of 32 qualifying centers.

· Our model makes Seattle a 5.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.0 points, but I’ll lean with the Seahawks based on a 27-71-3 ATS road letdown situation that applies to Washington. And, home favorites of 3 points or more that have a winning record and are coming off a loss in which they scored less than 7 points are 56-25-5 ATS since 1980.