Game Analysis

Lean – Washington (+3) over NY JETS

Lean – Over (37)

· Commanders head coach Ron Rivera is sticking with Sam Howell under center even after Jacoby Brissett averaged 12.4 yppp in relief last week.

· Washington WR Terry McLaurin had a season-high 141 yards versus the Rams but he will be shut down in this game as Jets CB Sauce Gardner is conceding only 0.53 yards per cover snap (3rd).

· New York’s defense will likely be without edge defender John Franklin-Myers, who ranks 16th in pass-rushing efficiency. The Jets will also not have interior defender Quinton Jefferson, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency. However, New York’s defensive line should put pressure on Howell regardless.

· Commanders LT Charles Leno ranks 17th in pass blocking efficiency but he will likely be sidelined. Backup Cornelius Lucas will struggle across from Jets edge defender Bryce Huff, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· New York interior defender Quinnen Williams has 51 pressures (6th) and he will wreak havoc in a favorable matchup. Washington C Tyler Larsen is banged up and ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency. Commanders LG Saahdiq Charles ranks 51st in pass-blocking efficiency out of 53 qualifying guards.

· Washington RB Antonio Gibson is averaging 1.25 yards per route run (10th) but Howell will not be able to slow down the Jets pass rush with screens as New York’s defense is conceding just a 36% pass success rate to running backs (8th).

· There was some speculation Aaron Rodgers would suit up for this game, but the Jets are out of the playoff picture and it looks like it will be Trevor Siemian as Zach Wilson has concussion symptoms. Siemian is averaging 5.7 yppp for his career but only 3.3 yppp in limited work for the Jets this year.

· We have New York’s offense about a point better with Siemian as he should be better than Wilson with a full week of first-team reps.

· Our model favors the Jets by 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 40.0 points, but Washington applies to a 195-87-6 ATS road underdog situation.