Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *New York Team Total Under (17 -115)

Lean – Washington (-3) over NY GIANTS

· The Giants do not have a functional offensive line. LT Andrew Thomas had a hamstring setback before the week 4 game in Seattle, backup Matt Peart is ruled out, and backup Joshua Ezeudu likely won’t be returning this season.

· Justin Pugh played 9 snaps at left guard and 68 snaps at left tackle last week after being signed right off the couch. Pugh surrendered 2 sacks against the Bills.

· New York’s offensive line starters RT Evan Neal and C John Michael Schmitz are also out leaving just LG Mark Glowinski and RG Marcus McKethan, who rank 3rd-worst and 7th-worst respectively in pass blocking efficiency out of 54 qualifying guards.

· The Commanders have the most talented defensive line in the NFL, and they will wreak havoc against the Giants’ patchwork offensive line for the entire game. Edge defender Chase Young ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency and edge defender Montez Sweat has 4.5 sacks (14th). Interior defender Jonathan Allen has 20 pressures (9th) and interior defender Daron Payne has 14 run stops (2nd).

· Backup QB Tyrod Taylor kept New York competitive last Sunday night versus the Bills but he averaged only 4.7 yppp and I could see it being even lower versus this defensive front.

· Washington’s offense will likely have problems with protection as well. C Nick Gates ranks 3rd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from Giants interior defender Dexter Lawrence, whose 21 pressures rank 5th.

· New York’s defense has a 46.8% blitz rate (3rd-highest). Giants’ defensive coordinator Don Martindale will dial it up as Sam Howell’s yards per attempt versus the blitz is only 74% of his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (3rd-worst).

· Giants’ linebacker Bobby Okereke conceded only 2 receptions for 11 yards and forced 2 incompletions last week. Okereke will contain a Commanders offense with a 24.0% target rate to tight ends (8th-most).

· Our model makes Washington a 4.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 34.6. With value on Washington and the Under, the best play is New York’s Team Total Under 17 at -120 or better (Under 19.5 to -150 is okay).