Game Analysis

Lean – Over (40.5) – NEW ENGLAND (-3) vs Washington

· Washington sold at the trade deadline this week, shipping out both starting edge defenders. Chase Young ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency and Montez Sweat has 6.5 sacks (8th).

· Washington’s defense was already without starting safety Darrick Forrest, who suffered a fractured shoulder in week 5. Young, Sweat, and Forrest are worth 2.2 points according to our numbers.

· However, the Commanders’ defense could get away with the losses on Sunday. Mac Jones’ yards per attempt versus man is only 60% of his yards per attempt against zone coverage and Washington’s defense has a 26.9% man-coverage rate (8th-highest).

· Kendrick Bourne leads all Patriots wide receivers averaging 1.22 yards per route run versus man this year, but he tore his ACL last week.

· New England’s defense has gotten only 25 points from takeaways (30th) after leading the NFL with 1.8 takeaways per game in 2022. The Patriots have been without their best pass rusher Matt Judon and their best cornerback Christian Gonzalez since week 5, but they should get some interceptions this week as Sam Howell has a 3.8% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (25th).

· Washington TE Logan Thomas is averaging 0.26 EPA/target (7th) and he has a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense surrendering a 66% success rate to tight ends (31st).

· Our model makes New England a 3.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.8 points, but Washington applies to a 191-86-6 ATS situation and the Patriots only seem to play well lately when they’re off consecutive losses (0-10 ATS recently when on off 2 or more losses). I used Washington in my spread pool.