Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser on Washington (+8.5) with LA Rams (-1)

Washington (+2.5) over ATLANTA

· Desmond Ridder averaged a career-high 8.9 yppp last week and is now 31-0 at home as a starter in college and the NFL but the streak is in jeopardy this week.

· Ridder has just a 1.9% interception rate (14th) despite a 5.5% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (2nd-most) and the Commanders should get a couple of takeaways on Sunday.

· Kyle Pitts averaged 3.48 yards per route run against the Texans, the most of any tight end in week 5. Pitts averaged only 0.70 yards per route run in the first four games this year and he will return to that level, as Washington’s defense is allowing only a 39% success rate to tight ends (6th).

· Falcons WR Drake London had a season-high 9 targets last week, but he will be shut down by CB Kendall Fuller, who is allowing only 0.60 yards per cover snap (2nd).

· The Commanders are allowing a 52% pass success rate to running backs (27th) so we will likely see a bunch of Ridder check-downs to RB Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 0.22 EPA/target (2nd).

· Washington interior defender Jonathan Allen has 19 pressures (5th) and the Pro Bowler has a favorable matchup versus rookie LG Matthew Bergeron.

· Commanders’ offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy ranks 4th in offensive play calling according to our numbers. Washington’s offense has just a 5% run rate on 2nd & 10 following first down incompletion (2nd-lowest), which is ideal.

· Commanders’ WR Terry McLaurin had a turf toe injury to start the season and it clearly affected him. McLaurin’s average speed in 2023 is 13.6 MPH, nearly a full mile per hour slower than his career average. McLaurin’s toe is back to normal for week 6, he is off the injury report, and he leads Washington’s offense with 340 intended air yards. I expect a breakout game for McLaurin.

· Our model favors the Commanders by 1.0 points with a predicted total of 42.2. There is enough value to make Washington a play on their own but with the line at 2.5 points it is better to utilize them in a teaser.

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser on Washington (+8.5) with LA Rams (-1), at +8 or better with Washington.