Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tennessee (+1) over TAMPA BAY

· Tennessee rookie quarterback Will Levis has attempted a league-high 19 passes with 20+ air yards in the last two weeks and deep passing has enabled him to average 6.2 yppp despite being pressured on 48% of his dropbacks in the NFL (2nd-most).

· Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 25th in explosive pass rate allowed and they only have a 29.4% pressure rate (30th). Levis will hit some downfield shots when he gets clean pockets in this game.

· Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins is gaining 2.44 yards per route run (10th) and he has a favorable matchup against backup CB Zyon McCollum with Buccaneers starting cornerback Jamel Dean out due to a concussion.

· Tennessee’s offense is targeting running backs on 22.8% of passes (7th-most) but Levis will need to throw deep to Hopkins as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing just a 36% pass success rate to running backs (6th).

· The Titans are surrendering a 58% success rate to wide receivers (31st) and they will be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is conceding 0.79 yards per cover snap (15th). However, they will get back starting nickelback Roger McCreary after he missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury he suffered in practice.

· Tennessee cornerback Kristian Fulton is allowing 1.46 yards per cover snap (14th-worst) and he will struggle across from WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (14th).

· However, Baker Mayfield will not have ample time to find Evans down the sideline as interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 33 pressures (3rd) and he will wreak havoc versus Buccaneers rookie RG Cody Mauch, who ranks 8th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Titans by 0.1 points, with a predicted total of 38.3 points, and the Titans apply to a 103-33-3 ATS situation.

Tennessee is a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.