Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet- SEATTLE (-5.5) over Tennessee

I had questions about both of these new offensive coordinators heading into this season. Seattle’s Shane Waldron passed while Tennessee’s Todd Downing did not.

The Titans had a league-leading 36% play action rate last season and Downing only used play action on 5 passes in week 1 and Ryan Tannehill was held under 4 yppp. Tannehill was excellent with new Falcons head coach Arthur Smith calling the plays (7.5 yppp) but will take a step backwards this year under Downing. The 2017 Raiders were a league-average offense by our metrics in Downing’s only previous season calling plays after finishing 7th the previous year when they went 12-4. Downing will likely drag the Titans’ offense down too.

We could see some rain on Sunday and Tennessee will likely turn to the ground game. However, Seattle’s rush defense rated 2nd last year and should make it tough on Derrick Henry.

The Seahawks had a 49% pass play rate week 1 but that was higher than the league average expectation after controlling for the pre-snap situation because they were leading by two scores for the entire second half. Waldron used a healthy mix of layup throws and deep shots for Russell Wilson. Wilson’s average depth of target versus the Colts was 11.0 yards and he went 5/7 on throws with at least 10 air yards for 159 yards and three touchdowns. Tennessee’s pressure rate was less than 10% last week and Wilson should have all day in the pocket to attack vertically.

Our model favors the Seahawks by 9.4 points, with a predicted total of 52.9 points, and Seattle is a 2-Star Best Bet at -6.5 or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Titans
Seahawks

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.0 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 42.9% 41.2%
Sack Rate 14.3% 5.9%
Int Rate 2.8% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 8.3% 28.1%
Big Pass Yards 17.9% 59.5%
NYPP 5.2 8.5

Rush

Rush Plays 22.0 32.0
RB YPR 3.5 4.0
Stuff Rate 36.4% 21.9%
Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 53.1%
Big Rush Yards 40.7% 20.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.0

Game

All Snaps 64.0 66.0
Early Down Succ 50.0% 46.2%
Succ Rate 43.8% 47.0%
Big Yards Rate 24.3% 47.4%
Yards Per Play 4.8 6.3
Fumble Lost Rate 3.1% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 24.9 30.3
Run Ratio 34.4% 48.5%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -15.6 15.6

Points 13.0 38.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARZ	13 – 38 L	-15.6	42.9% / 41.2%	14.3% / 5.9%	2.8% / 3.1%	5.2 / 8.5	45.5% / 53.1%	36.4% / 21.9%	3.9 / 4.0	64 / 66	50.0% / 46.2%	43.8% / 47.0%	24.3% / 47.4%	4.8 / 6.3	3.1% / 0.0%	34.4% / 48.5%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@IND	28 – 16 W	7.6	57.7% / 48.8%	11.5% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.8 / 6.1	66.7% / 60.0%	14.8% / 13.3%	5.2 / 3.8	53 / 71	69.0% / 60.0%	62.3% / 53.5%	51.0% / 9.9%	7.4 / 5.1	1.9% / 1.4%	50.9% / 42.3%	0.0 / 0.0

Tennessee Titans @

Seattle Seahawks

Sat, Sep 18

9:00 PM Pacific

Game Analysis