Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved up to -14 at some books and Miami would be just a Lean at -14 (Strong Opinion at -13.5 or less).

Strong Opinion – MIAMI (-13) over Tennessee

· Tua Tagovailoa averaged 11.7 yppp last week against a Commanders defense allowing a league-high 0.21 EPA/dropback. The Dolphins go against a Tennessee defense that is not much better, as the Titans are surrendering 0.16 EPA/dropback (30th).

· Miami has covered all but one game they’ve been favored by at least a touchdown this season as the offense is unstoppable for teams with a below-par secondary, which Tennessee certainly has – and especially without starting CB Kristian Fulton.

· The Titans will also be without interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency and is worth 1.3 points according to our metrics.

· I expect the Dolphins to use a pass-heavy gameplan versus Tennessee’s defense conceding a 36.1% rush success rate (7th).

· Miami’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.24 EPA/dropback since CB Jalen Ramsey got on the field. Ramsey is conceding only 0.46 yards per cover snap (4th) and he will shut down WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is averaging 2.25 yards per route run (12th).

· The Dolphins are also conceding only a 33.3% rush success rate (6th) with Ramsey, and they should contain a Titans offense with the 5th-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation.

· Will Levis is targeting running backs on 23.0% of passes since taking over as starter in week 8 (9th-most) but Miami’s defense is conceding just a 31% pass success rate to running backs (3rd). However, Dolphins starting linebacker Jerome Baker is out and there might be more opportunities in the screen game than usual for Derrick Henry.

· Levis will need to get the ball out quickly as the Dolphins are one of the 6 defenses in the NFL with a pressure rate above 40% and Tennessee’s offensive line ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors Miami by 14.3-points, with a predicted total of 44.0 points, and the Dolphins apply to a 71-27-3 ATS late-season double-digit home favorite situation and a 46-12-1 ATS Monday night home team situation.

The Dolphins are a Strong Opinion at -13.5 or less.