Game Analysis

Lean – Tennessee (+7) over JACKSONVILLE

· The Titans are virtually out of the playoff picture halfway through the season due to late down variance. Tennessee’s defense is surrendering a league-high 6.7 yppl on third down while the offense is at the bottom of the NFL with an average of just 3.3 yppl on third down.

· The Titans will need to stay out of obvious passing situations on late downs if they want to improve because Jaguars edge rusher Josh Allen has 43 pressures (11th) and he will be up against backup left tackle Dillon Radunz with starter Andre Dillard out with a concussion.

· Tennessee RB Tyjae Spears has a league-high 17 missed tackles forced on receptions, but the Titans won’t have an easy time getting the ball to Spears out of the backfield, as Jacksonville’s defense is allowing a 38% pass success rate to running backs (9th).

· Will Levis will look downfield to WR DeAndre Hopkins when he does have clean pockets. Hopkins has 23 targets with 20+ air yards (2nd-most) and will line up across from Jaguars backup cornerback Montaric Brown with starter Tyson Campbell likely sidelined. Brown has allowed only 1 fewer yard than Campbell this season on 93 fewer coverage snaps.

· Jacksonville’s offense will have all five starters on the offensive line and its full complement of receivers with WR Zay Jones suiting up after being out since the London game. The Jaguars scored just 3 points last week and Trevor Lawrence is averaging 0.4 yppp fewer than 2022. He should improve with no injuries across the rest of the offense.

· Tennessee interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 35 pressures (5th) but he will be contained by RG Brandon Scherff, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. Titans defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is better off lining Simmons up across from LG Walker Little, who returned from injury against the 49ers and played the first full game of his career at guard and surrendered 3 pressures.

· Our model makes Jacksonville a 6.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.0 points.