Game Analysis
CLEVELAND (+5.5) vs Tennessee
The Browns are switching back to DeShone Kizer at quarterback after Kevin Hogan’s 2.8 yppp and 3 interceptions last week. The Browns quarterbacks are now on pace to throw more than 37 interceptions this season. I have Cleveland’s rush offense ranked 7th, yet they’re running the ball at the 5th lowest rate in the NFL – the Browns would be wise to utilize the ground game more often moving forward.
Marcus Mariota will face his second bottom-5 pass defense in consecutive weeks on Sunday. Mariota’s mobility was clearly hampered last Monday night but he still was able to throw for 9.2 yppp against the Colts and he will need to build on that success this week. The Browns are holding opponents to 3.0 yards per rush this season and it could be a tough day for the Titans running backs. However, I suspect the Titans will be happy just to throw the ball into the Browns’ porous secondary.
Cleveland applies to a 52-12 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams on a losing streak that have also lost 5 or more consecutive games to the spread. That angle won last week with Arizona but my ratings favor Tennessee to cover so I’m going to pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.3
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
3.8%
-
Int Rate
4.5%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.3%
17.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.4%
22.9%
-
NYPP
6.4
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
28.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.6%
20.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.9%
48.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.1%
24.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
60.7
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
50.3%
50.9%
-
Succ Rate
45.9%
47.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.9%
24.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.8
-
Run Ratio
46.4%
43.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
27.9
-
Game Control
-2.9
2.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.0
32.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.2%
48.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.4%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
5.9%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.5%
9.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.1%
43.1%
-
NYPP
5.1
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.2
30.0
-
RB YPR
3.9
2.6
-
Stuff Rate
21.0%
27.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.9%
27.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
2.7
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
62.7
-
Early Down Succ
41.5%
41.2%
-
Succ Rate
39.5%
39.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.5%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.8
29.6
-
Run Ratio
35.4%
47.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.4
27.7
-
Game Control
-9.8
9.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% /
55.9% |
2.4% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
57.1% |
47.6% /
53.1% |
33.1% /
26.7% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.9% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
3.6% /
5.6% |
3.7% /
5.9% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
68.4% /
64.0% |
10.5% /
12.0% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
66 /
61 |
64.0% /
52.1% |
57.6% /
50.8% |
41.6% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.6% /
41.0% |
39.9 /
23.4 |
| 3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
44.4% /
40.9% |
22.2% /
31.8% |
5.4 /
3.1 |
67 /
72 |
54.9% /
51.8% |
47.8% /
47.2% |
44.9% /
38.8% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
30.6% |
29.6 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% /
58.3% |
9.1% /
5.6% |
20.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
15.0% /
14.3% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
42 /
78 |
43.8% /
53.8% |
38.1% /
53.8% |
52.6% /
28.5% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.9 /
38.0 |
| 5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% /
25.0% |
15.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.1 /
2.8 |
30.0% /
43.8% |
45.0% /
28.1% |
3.5 /
3.2 |
58 /
60 |
40.0% /
37.2% |
34.5% /
35.0% |
19.1% /
6.1% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
3.4% /
1.7% |
34.5% /
53.3% |
25.1 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% /
51.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.7 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
57 |
51.9% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
47.4% |
42.2% /
22.6% |
7.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
27.4 /
26.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
18 – 21 L |
-5.8 |
43.2% /
45.9% |
18.9% /
2.7% |
3.3% /
2.8% |
4.9 /
6.9 |
36.0% /
16.0% |
16.0% /
16.0% |
2.3 /
1.5 |
62 /
62 |
41.7% /
41.0% |
40.3% /
33.9% |
45.1% /
35.2% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
40.3% |
28.6 /
20.8 |
| 2 |
@BAL |
10 – 24 L |
-9.4 |
31.1% /
50.0% |
6.7% /
5.6% |
9.5% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
5.6 |
38.1% /
36.4% |
23.8% /
27.3% |
4.4 /
4.2 |
66 /
69 |
36.5% /
47.3% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
67.1% /
39.9% |
5.8 /
4.9 |
1.5% /
1.4% |
31.8% /
47.8% |
22.3 /
33.9 |
| 3 |
@IND |
28 – 31 L |
-9.2 |
35.4% /
33.3% |
2.1% /
11.1% |
6.4% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
9.0 |
57.1% /
27.0% |
19.0% /
37.8% |
5.3 /
2.5 |
69 /
64 |
42.9% /
24.4% |
42.0% /
29.7% |
53.8% /
63.7% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
30.4% /
57.8% |
28.9 /
29.6 |
| 4 |
CIN |
7 – 31 L |
-16.5 |
29.5% /
60.6% |
4.5% /
9.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
8.0 |
41.2% /
40.0% |
35.3% /
26.7% |
2.6 /
2.9 |
61 /
63 |
32.6% /
50.0% |
32.8% /
50.8% |
33.0% /
43.4% |
3.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
27.9% /
47.6% |
26.4 /
28.3 |
| 5 |
NYJ |
14 – 17 L |
-1.7 |
45.9% /
51.5% |
2.7% /
9.1% |
5.6% /
3.3% |
7.5 /
5.4 |
45.5% /
19.0% |
18.2% /
33.3% |
4.2 /
1.8 |
70 /
54 |
46.3% /
45.9% |
45.7% /
38.9% |
40.1% /
32.1% |
6.0 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
38.9% |
30.1 /
29.0 |
| 6 |
@HOU |
17 – 33 L |
-16.2 |
31.7% /
50.0% |
9.8% /
3.3% |
8.1% /
3.4% |
2.8 /
7.2 |
63.6% /
26.5% |
13.6% /
26.5% |
6.1 /
3.6 |
63 /
64 |
49.0% /
38.8% |
42.9% /
37.5% |
39.7% /
47.5% |
3.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
53.1% |
28.0 /
24.9 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
Cleveland Browns