Game Analysis
Tampa Bay (-1.5) vs LA RAMS
The Buccaneers are finally getting rid of many of those inefficient first down runs and putting the ball in Tom Brady’s hands. Brady has a 9-yard average depth of target (7th) with a 2.46-second average time to throw (3rd-fastest). The interior of Tampa Bay’s offensive line has conceded only 3 pressures through two weeks, and I expect Aaron Donald to be mostly neutralized with Brady’s quick pass game. However, WR Antonio Brown was placed on the COVID-19 list and might not be cleared on this for this game. Also, WR Chris Godwin leads the Buccaneers with 18 targets, and he will be shut down by All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey, who is allowing league-low 0.27 yards per cover snap in the slot.
On the other hand, Matt Stafford’s favorite target should dominate. Cooper Kupp has a 34% target share and runs 75% of his routes on the inside. Backup nickelback Ross Cockrell is surrendering 1.91 yards per cover snap in the slot.
Our model favors the Buccaneers by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 54.5 points, but the matchup favors the Rams.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.5
54.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.4%
52.3%
-
Sack Rate
3.8%
1.9%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
4.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
26.3%
8.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.9%
34.7%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
17.5
19.0
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
17.9%
33.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
60.7%
34.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
12.2%
29.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.0
73.0
-
Early Down Succ
59.1%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
54.7%
47.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.3%
33.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.4%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.0
28.1
-
Run Ratio
28.4%
26.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
6.5
-6.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.0
41.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.8%
51.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.5%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
4.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.5%
12.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.7%
18.9%
-
NYPP
10.4
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
26.0
-
RB YPR
3.6
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
28.1%
25.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.9%
57.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.9%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
54.5
67.0
-
Early Down Succ
55.3%
59.0%
-
Succ Rate
53.1%
53.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.5%
27.9%
-
Yards Per Play
7.2
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
29.6
-
Run Ratio
46.7%
38.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
6.6
-6.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DAL |
31 – 29 W |
3.2 |
56.0% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
1.7% |
4.0% /
1.7% |
7.6 /
6.8 |
64.3% /
38.9% |
7.1% /
27.8% |
3.7 /
3.3 |
64 /
77 |
60.4% /
54.2% |
57.8% /
53.2% |
38.5% /
32.0% |
6.7 /
6.0 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
21.9% /
23.4% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
ATL |
48 – 25 W |
9.9 |
48.7% /
46.9% |
7.7% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
7.1 /
6.1 |
57.1% /
30.0% |
28.6% /
40.0% |
3.9 /
2.8 |
60 /
69 |
57.8% /
44.0% |
51.7% /
42.0% |
44.1% /
35.5% |
6.0 /
5.1 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
35.0% /
29.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
34 – 14 W |
10.9 |
55.6% /
55.8% |
3.7% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
11.9 /
5.0 |
47.8% /
61.5% |
34.8% /
26.9% |
3.2 /
5.2 |
50 /
69 |
51.4% /
66.0% |
52.0% /
58.0% |
44.3% /
18.6% |
7.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.0% /
37.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
@IND |
27 – 24 W |
2.2 |
58.1% /
46.2% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
3.3% /
5.6% |
9.0 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
53.8% |
21.4% /
23.1% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
65 |
59.2% /
51.9% |
54.2% /
49.2% |
40.6% /
37.2% |
6.4 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
47.5% /
40.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ 
Los Angeles Rams