Game Analysis

Lean – Tampa Bay (+2.5) over HOUSTON

· CJ Stroud has a league-high 43 pass attempts on 3rd and long this season because Houston’s ground game is killing them. The Texans have just a 35.1% rush success rate (29th) and the offensive line blocked for only 0.1 yards per before contact on rushes last week.

· Houston’s offensive line does rank 4th in pass-blocking efficiency since week 5, which is when starting LT Laramey Tunsil and starting LG Tytus Howard came back. However, center Jarrett Patterson ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and he will be out for this game. The Texans were already down two centers Scott Quessenberry and Juice Scruggs so it will likely be fourth-stringer Michael Deiter getting the start.

· Stroud’s yards per attempt versus the blitz is 33% higher than his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (2nd-largest gap) and he will find gaps in Todd Bowles’ defense as the Buccaneers have a 46.3% blitz rate (4th-highest).

· Tampa Bay CB Carlton Davis is surrendering 1.45 yards per cover snap ranking 56th out of 69 qualifying cornerbacks and he will struggle lined up across from WR Nico Collins, whose 0.73 EPA/target ranks 2nd.

· Baker Mayfield is similar to Stroud in that he is better against more pass rushers and fewer defensive players in coverage. However, DeMeco Ryans’ defense uses a 76.3% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest). Mayfield’s yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is only 81% of his yards per attempt against the blitz (27th).

· Our model picks this game even with a predicted total of 40.4 points. The matchups do favor Houston but Tampa Bay applies to a 216-118-10 ATS bounce-back situation.