Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – GREEN BAY (-3.5 -105) over Tampa Bay

· Baker Mayfield will not have enough time in the pocket to throw deep for WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 0.39 EPA/target (14th).

· Green Bay’s interior defenders Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark rank 4th and 14th respectively in pass rushing efficiency and 60% of Tampa Bay’s allowed pressures this year have been at fault of the interior offensive line (3rd-most).

· The Packers should get back starting outside cornerbacks Jarie Alexander and Eric Stokes to contain Evans and WR Chris Godwin, who is currently struggling with a knee injury.

· Alexander and Stokes will be an upgrade on Green Bay’s backup CB Corey Ballentine, who was surrendering 1.49 yards per cover snap ranking 8th-worst among 84 qualifying cornerbacks.

· Jordan Love is averaging 0.11 EPA/play (8th) and the unsung part of his game is taking care of the ball.

· Love has a 2.4% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (5th-lowest) while being aggressive downfield – averaging 8.8 air yards per attempt (8th-highest).

· Tampa Bay’s defense will be without starting interior defender Vita Vea and starting cornerback Carlton Davis, who are worth a half-point each by our numbers.

· Every team in the NFC South is at least 2 points worse than average according to the market and they are 11-25 ATS in non-divisional games.

· Our model favors Green Bay by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 40.5 points, and the Packers apply to a 95-47-4 ATS home bounce-back situation that is based on last Monday Night’s upset loss to the Giants.

Green Bay is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 -115 odds or better.