Game Analysis

Lean – Under (49.5) – DETROIT (-6) vs Tampa Bay

Strong Opinion – RB Rachaad White (TB) Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-130 or better) or to 49.5

· Jared Goff was a perfect 21 for 21 for 266 yards when kept clean in the Wild Card round and Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is going to do everything in his power to make Goff more uncomfortable on Sunday.

· Tampa Bay’s 10 unblocked pressures against the Eagles last week were the most by a defense this season and the Buccaneers had a 49.1% blitz rate this year (3rd-highest). Goff’s PFF turnover-worthy play rate goes up 62% versus the blitz compared to a standard pass rush.

· The Buccaneers are rotating two nickelbacks and Zyon McCollum is surrendering 2.51 yards per cover snap in the slot compared to Christian Izien, who has allowed just 1.04 yards per cover snap in the slot. Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 59% success rate (4th) and he will be an auto-target for Goff when lined up across from McCollum, especially against the blitz.

· Lions’ RB Jahmyr Gibbs has a 42% pass success rate (5th) and the rookie has acted as a safety valve for Goff against pressure but he will likely be limited this week as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing -0.21 EPA/target to running backs (5th).

· It’s not looking much better for Detroit’s running backs on the ground. The Lions have a 41.5% rush success rate (8th) but the Buccaneers are conceding -0.17 EPA/rush (5th).

· Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 0.30 EPA/target to tight ends (26th) and they will struggle versus TE Sam LaPorta, who has a 58% success rate (5th).

· Baker Mayfield averaged 7.7 yppp last week despite his receivers’ 7 drops.

· Buccaneers’ TE Cade Otton had one of those drops on his season-high 11 targets but his role will diminish in this game as the Lions are conceding only 0.07 EPA/target to tight ends (8th) and are likely to be even better in the playoffs.

· Detroit safety CJ Gardner-Johnson came back in week 18 after missing 14 games and he is replacing a linebacker in the box on some snaps and conceding only 7.0 yards per target. The linebackers being partially replaced are Derrick Barnes and Jack Campbell, who are combining to surrender 10.1 yards per target.

· The Lions ran the 10th-most man coverage in the NFL this year and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn could call an even higher rate with his secondary fully intact. Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt against man was only 73% of his yards per attempt against zone coverage (30th).

· Mayfield was bombs away against Glenn’s defense earlier this season with a league-high 27.0% of his passes having at least 20 air yards in week 6.

· Detroit’s outside cornerbacks surrendered 9.6 yards per target in 2023 and they will struggle versus WR Chris Godwin and WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (7th).

· Our model favors the Lions by 7.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.1 points.