Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-8.5) vs Tampa Bay

· The Bills are missing starters on all three levels of the defense. Buffalo is allowing 5.6 yppl in the 200+ snaps without CB Tre’Davious White, LB Matt Milano, and DT DaQuan Jones. For reference, 5.4 yppl allowed would rank 21st among NFL defenses this season.

· The Bills cannot defend between the numbers without All-Pro linebacker Milano. Buffalo’s defense is surrendering a 72% success rate on middle passes with Milano out, compared to allowing a 50% success rate on middle passes with Milano on the field. Bills rookie linebacker Dorian Williams was benched in the second quarter after missing 2 tackles and he was replaced by Tyrel Dodson. The Buccaneers’ middle pass rate is 23.4%, which is 9th-highest in the league.

· Buffalo’s defense will get back interior defender Ed Oliver, who missed the last game and ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt against a zone is 36% more than versus man coverage and he will find gaps on Thursday night as the Bills have an 82.0% zone rate (8th-highest).

· Mike Evans accounts for 49% of Tampa Bay’s air yards when he’s on the field this season and he will have a favorable matchup versus Buffalo backup CB Christian Benford.

· Bills starting tight end Dawson Knox requires surgery for a wrist injury and rookie TE Dalton Kincaid had a game-high 8 receptions for 75 yards last week. However, Josh Allen will have to look elsewhere in this game as the Buccaneers are conceding a 46% success rate to tight ends (7th).

· Our model makes Buffalo an 11.2-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.5 points, but the matchups significantly favor the Bucs.