Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Tampa Bay (+2.5) over ATLANTA

· The Buccaneers were down their top four linebackers last week against the Panthers. However, it looks like LB Lavonte David and LB SirVocea Dennis will be back on the field with an outside shot at getting LB Devin White back.

· Tampa Bay’s playoff chances move to about 55% with a win but they would be nearly eliminated with a loss so it will be all hands on deck. The Buccaneers did not sign a linebacker early this week indicating to me they feel comfortable at the position against a Falcons offense where having linebackers is vital.

· Atlanta targets tight ends on a league-high 35.3% of passes and targets running backs on 23.1% of passes (5th-most), but Tampa Bay’s defense is conceding -0.14 EPA/target to running backs (8th).

· The Falcons have a 48.9% run-play rate (3rd-highest) but they will be contained on the ground versus a Buccaneers defense allowing only -0.17 EPA/rush (4th).

· Atlanta RT Kaleb McGary ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency but he is likely out and worth a half point by our metrics. Backup tackle Storm Norton will struggle as Tampa Bay edge rusher Yaya Diaby has a sack in 5 consecutive games and edge defender Shaquil Barrett ranks 19th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Buccaneers’ interior defender Calijah Kancey ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from rookie LG Matthew Bergeron and banged up C Drew Dalman, who ranks 6th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

· Desmond Ridder will not be kept clean and may throw a couple of interceptions in this game given his 5.3% turnover-worthy play rate (2nd-highest according to PFF).

· Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans accounted for 80% of Baker Mayfield’s passing yards last week. Falcons starting cornerback AJ Terrell is out, which leaves backup rookie cornerback Clark Phillips to line up across from Evans, who is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (11th).

· Our model favors Tampa Bay by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 38.5 points, and the Buccaneers apply to a 56-7-1 ATS same-season road underdog division revenge situation.

Tampa Bay is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +1).