Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Tampa Bay (+4) over ATLANTA

Atlanta’s defense has been a revelation the last two weeks, as the Falcons have surrendered only 5.0 yards per play in two upset wins following their bye week (both Best Bet wins). The improvement can mainly be attributed to an improved pass rush. The Falcons sacked Drew Brees 6 times and followed it up by pressuring Kyle Allen on 46.4% of his drop-backs. However, I’m now expecting a decline with the likely absence of elite edge pass-rusher Takkarist McKinley, who has a 30% pass rush win rate (2nd). Jameis Winston should have plenty of time in the pocket to find Mike Evans, who is gaining 2.33 yards per route run (9th), and Chris Godwin, who is averaging 1.94 yards per route run in the slot (4th).

Wide receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley each saw 8 targets in Atlanta’s first game without tight end Austin Hooper. Ridley recorded 143 receiving yards last week and Matt Ryan will need him to step up again and take advantage of rookie cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting with Julio Jones facing a difficult matchup. Jones is up to 2.38 yards per route run (5th) but will be limited by Carlton Davis, who is surrendering only 0.82 yards per cover snap (13th). Rookie linebacker Devin White is exploitable, allowing 1.58 yards per cover snap, and he lined up across from Michael Thomas on 4 snaps last week and Thomas caught a pass on each occasion for a total of 67 receiving yards. Jones runs only 20.8% from the slot but the Falcons would be wise to line him up on the inside more frequently in this game. Interior defender Vita Vea has a 15% pass rush win rate (9th) and will wreak havoc across from left guard James Carpenter, who ranks 6th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

It appears as if Atlanta’s impressive performances the last two weeks have swung the pendulum too far, as the model favors the Falcons by 3.2 points after adjusting for current personnel. Teams that have allowed less than 10 points in consecutive weeks but average 12 or more points allowed per game for the season are just 61-115-2 ATS when not getting at least 3 points and the Falcons apply to a 36-90-1 ATS subset of that situation. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is better than their scores suggest and the Bucs’ 6-game spread losing streak is due to end. In fact, the Buccaneers apply to a 113-46-3 ATS contrary angle that is based on their bad spread record. I like Tampa Bay plus the points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Falcons

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 44.2 42.8
Succ Pass Plays 43.4% 48.1%
Sack Rate 8.5% 5.2%
Int Rate 3.9% 1.3%
Deep Pass Rate 23.8% 18.7%
Big Pass Yards 41.8% 45.2%
NYPP 6.5 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 24.5 23.0
RB YPR 3.5 3.3
Stuff Rate 24.2% 33.4%
Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 37.0%
Big Rush Yards 38.2% 51.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.5

Game

All Snaps 68.7 65.8
Early Down Succ 45.4% 46.8%
Succ Rate 43.7% 44.2%
Big Yards Rate 41.2% 47.2%
Yards Per Play 5.5 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.3 27.0
Run Ratio 35.8% 35.8%
Starting Field Pos 28.2 30.4
Game Control -1.2 1.2

Points 27.7 31.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	17 – 31 L	-4.2	33.3% / 42.9%	7.7% / 3.6%	8.3% / 3.7%	4.5 / 5.6	53.8% / 34.4%	23.1% / 34.4%	4.7 / 3.1	65 / 60	43.1% / 40.0%	41.5% / 38.3%	27.1% / 48.0%	4.5 / 4.3	1.5% / 1.7%	40.0% / 53.3%	28.6 / 29.4
2	@CAR	20 – 14 W	1.4	39.3% / 40.7%	10.7% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.8	35.5% / 26.3%	25.8% / 57.9%	3.2 / 2.1	59 / 73	43.5% / 42.9%	37.3% / 37.0%	63.0% / 43.2%	4.9 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.4%	52.5% / 26.0%	26.5 / 27.6
3	NYG	31 – 32 L	5.4	46.3% / 39.0%	9.8% / 12.2%	2.7% / 0.0%	8.7 / 7.6	53.1% / 31.6%	18.8% / 26.3%	4.5 / 3.8	73 / 60	54.4% / 32.6%	49.3% / 36.7%	56.5% / 60.9%	6.8 / 6.4	0.0% / 3.3%	43.8% / 31.7%	30.8 / 26.3
4	@LA	55 – 40 W	10.8	55.8% / 52.9%	4.7% / 2.9%	2.4% / 4.4%	8.7 / 7.0	40.0% / 36.4%	33.3% / 36.4%	2.9 / 2.5	73 / 81	47.5% / 53.6%	49.3% / 50.6%	28.2% / 33.8%	6.4 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.2%	41.1% / 13.6%	33.4 / 25.3
5	@NO	24 – 31 L	-6.3	39.4% / 55.6%	18.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.8%	4.8 / 9.6	50.0% / 29.0%	13.6% / 19.4%	4.3 / 3.6	55 / 67	46.5% / 40.8%	43.6% / 43.3%	43.7% / 42.5%	4.6 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 46.3%	30.4 / 27.0
6	CAR	26 – 37 L	-11.3	42.6% / 44.1%	11.5% / 5.9%	9.3% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.1	42.9% / 27.6%	7.1% / 37.9%	3.0 / 2.0	75 / 63	44.8% / 41.3%	42.7% / 36.5%	38.3% / 45.5%	5.4 / 4.3	2.7% / 1.6%	18.7% / 46.0%	26.6 / 40.6
8	@TEN	23 – 27 L	-2.0	45.7% / 47.2%	6.5% / 8.3%	4.7% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.8	33.3% / 23.8%	16.7% / 57.1%	3.5 / 3.4	76 / 57	39.7% / 41.5%	40.8% / 38.6%	35.5% / 55.3%	5.1 / 4.3	2.6% / 1.8%	39.5% / 36.8%	27.5 / 35.4
9	@SEA	34 – 40 L	3.4	47.8% / 60.9%	4.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 7.5	53.8% / 54.5%	23.1% / 18.2%	3.8 / 6.6	72 / 68	50.9% / 63.3%	50.0% / 58.8%	25.4% / 45.5%	5.8 / 7.2	1.4% / 1.5%	36.1% / 32.4%	31.3 / 31.0
10	ARI	30 – 27 W	1.0	40.4% / 42.6%	7.7% / 4.3%	4.2% / 2.2%	6.5 / 7.3	34.6% / 38.9%	30.8% / 38.9%	4.5 / 4.2	78 / 65	36.5% / 47.1%	38.5% / 41.5%	43.3% / 63.8%	5.9 / 6.4	1.3% / 1.5%	33.3% / 27.7%	23.8 / 28.4
11	NO	17 – 34 L	-10.1	43.4% / 55.6%	3.8% / 2.8%	7.8% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.1	50.0% / 67.9%	50.0% / 7.1%	4.5 / 3.9	61 / 64	46.8% / 64.6%	44.3% / 60.9%	50.9% / 33.2%	5.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	13.1% / 43.8%	23.5 / 33.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	12 – 28 L	-18.6	48.0% / 63.6%	8.0% / 9.1%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.4 / 8.8	41.2% / 36.8%	29.4% / 26.3%	4.3 / 4.5	67 / 49	47.4% / 43.2%	46.3% / 42.9%	36.5% / 58.0%	5.1 / 5.5	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 77.6%	26.5 / 33.7
2	PHI	24 – 20 W	4.4	50.0% / 43.1%	2.3% / 5.9%	7.0% / 4.2%	7.0 / 4.6	47.1% / 33.3%	23.5% / 19.0%	3.4 / 2.3	61 / 72	53.1% / 35.3%	49.2% / 40.3%	46.6% / 15.0%	6.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.4%	27.9% / 29.2%	23.4 / 38.5
3	@IND	24 – 27 L	-8.1	61.8% / 60.5%	0.0% / 2.6%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.9 / 7.9	50.0% / 41.7%	25.0% / 33.3%	4.7 / 3.3	54 / 62	53.5% / 53.8%	57.4% / 53.2%	35.0% / 34.6%	7.4 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 38.7%	24.0 / 20.9
4	TEN	10 – 24 L	-10.8	48.3% / 44.4%	8.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.4	41.2% / 44.1%	23.5% / 32.4%	3.4 / 4.1	75 / 61	50.9% / 44.7%	46.7% / 44.3%	39.1% / 50.1%	5.6 / 6.0	1.3% / 0.0%	22.7% / 55.7%	15.7 / 32.6
5	@HOU	32 – 53 L	-5.3	41.7% / 72.7%	4.2% / 0.0%	2.2% / 0.0%	6.6 / 12.9	30.0% / 55.9%	35.0% / 11.8%	2.9 / 4.9	68 / 67	32.0% / 61.1%	38.2% / 64.2%	27.6% / 58.1%	5.5 / 8.8	0.0% / 1.5%	29.4% / 50.7%	28.7 / 26.5
6	@ARI	33 – 34 L	-4.9	68.4% / 62.2%	5.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.0 / 9.2	52.0% / 34.5%	20.0% / 24.1%	4.1 / 3.5	63 / 66	63.5% / 51.0%	61.9% / 50.0%	37.6% / 55.4%	7.0 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	39.7% / 43.9%	22.4 / 27.3
7	LA	10 – 37 L	-12.4	44.7% / 50.0%	13.2% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.7	46.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 36.1%	2.5 / 2.5	53 / 74	52.5% / 49.1%	45.3% / 50.0%	17.4% / 32.0%	4.2 / 5.1	3.8% / 0.0%	28.3% / 48.6%	29.0 / 38.2
8	SEA	20 – 27 L	-11.4	59.3% / 59.1%	3.7% / 9.1%	1.9% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.8	47.1% / 66.7%	29.4% / 15.2%	4.1 / 4.6	71 / 55	61.0% / 72.7%	56.3% / 63.6%	28.7% / 44.7%	7.2 / 5.9	2.8% / 0.0%	23.9% / 60.0%	21.8 / 35.1
10	@NO	26 – 9 W	6.7	33.3% / 46.2%	2.8% / 11.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.8 / 5.0	44.1% / 72.7%	23.5% / 9.1%	4.2 / 4.7	70 / 63	37.0% / 63.0%	38.6% / 50.8%	38.5% / 10.6%	4.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	48.6% / 17.5%	36.9 / 26.6
11	@CAR	29 – 3 W	15.6	51.4% / 40.0%	8.6% / 9.1%	0.0% / 8.0%	8.4 / 4.9	38.5% / 53.3%	26.9% / 13.3%	2.1 / 5.1	61 / 70	47.7% / 49.0%	45.9% / 42.9%	44.4% / 34.0%	5.7 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 21.4%	35.4 / 22.7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis