Game Analysis

Seattle (-2.5) vs TENNESSEE

Lean – Over (41.5)

· Will Levis is likely out with an ankle sprain this week and he leads the NFL with 47 throws having at least 20 air yards since he became the starter. Ryan Tannehill will attack the more intermediate parts of the field, but he won’t be a downgrade from Levis.

· Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins has 12 deep receptions (4th) but he will change his route tree with Tannehill. Hopkins could struggle lined up across from CB Tariq Woolen, who is conceding 0.82 yards per cover snap (13th).

· Seattle’s secondary could be without nickelback Devon Witherspoon, who allows 0.92 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th). Witherspoon has a hip pointer injury and missed last Monday’s win versus the Eagles.

· Tennessee C Aaron Brewer is banged up and ranks 3rd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency. Seahawks nose tackle Jarran Reed has 38 pressures (20th) and will wreak havoc across from Brewer.

· Geno Smith was close to returning last week and I expect him to suit up for this game in a favorable matchup. Seattle’s offense is averaging 27% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz this year (2nd-largest gap) and the Titans have a 77.0% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest).

· Tennessee’s defense will be without interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency and has been sidelined for the last two games.

· The Titans will also likely be without both starting cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Kristian Fulton. Backups Eric Garror and Tre Avery will get torched by Seahawks wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf has 10 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards (9th) and Lockett has a 62% success rate (2nd).

· Our model makes Seattle a 2.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.3 points. I used Tennessee in my pool.