Game Analysis

Lean – Over (39.5) – SAN FRANCISCO (-9) vs Seattle

· The market before week 1 had 49ers -8.5 and 43.5 which implies a team total of 17.5 for the Seahawks. San Francisco just played a game in a puddle which makes it difficult to extract any useful information. I didn’t see anything from Geno Smith on Monday night to make me think Seattle’s offense is any worse than where we (and the oddsmakers) had them in the preseason. However, we are now getting a team total below the key number of 17 for the Seahawks.

· We’ve built a team total push probability calculator to handle situations such as this one. The odds of the team landing on 17 is ~8.5%. Nonetheless, I do not believe Seattle’s team total is providing value here due to uncharacteristically bad weather expected in Santa Clara today. It’s looking like some rain showers with 13 mph winds.

· There’s trouble on the defensive side of the ball for the Seahawks. Safety Jamal Adams is headed for surgery on his quadriceps tendon. Adams had 18 run stops last season (4th) and 7 pressures (11th) and is worth a half point.

· Seattle edge defender Uchenna Nwosu had 4 pressures last Monday night, but he will be stifled this week by All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams, who ranked 6th in pass blocking efficiency last year.

· The Seahawks changed their defensive scheme this offseason to use more two-high looks. Seattle called Cover 6 or Quarters at the highest rate in the NFL last week (51.6%). This new scheme they worked on all training camp is not designed well to stop Kyle Shanahan’s wide-zone play action offense because there are not enough defenders near the line of scrimmage.

· Trey Lance has shown he can execute Shanahan’s offense. Lance is averaging 7.1 yppp for his career even after the monsoon last Sunday. 

· Lance will not benefit from the return of TE George Kittle, who led all tight ends with 2.35 yards per route run in 2021, as Kittle (groin) will likely be sidelined for the second week in a row.

· Our model has 49ers by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 43.6 points, but the Niners apply to a 78-29-3 ATS situation that combines a bounce-back from SF and a letdown from Seattle after their Monday night upset win. The matchups also favor San Francisco based on the defense that Seattle plays. The true number, when factoring all of that in is SF by 9.0 points. The model stlll likes the over even with 3.5 points adjusted downwards due to the weather forecast.