Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (46.5) – Seattle at LA RAMS

Lean – Seattle (+1.5)

· This is a game favoring the under on the model and tech, but the matchup is strong enough to keep it from being a Best Bet.

· The Rams and Seahawks offenses showed earlier this season they are fully capable of moving the ball up and down the field on each other. Los Angeles had a 49.4% success rate and Seattle had a 48.0% success rate ranking 3rd and 6th respectively among offenses in week 1.

· There is a strong reason these teams can score points against one another as the Rams have an 84.5% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest) and the Seahawks have an 83.9% zone coverage rate (4th-highest). Both Geno Smith and Matthew Stafford kill zone defense.

· Smith has the largest man coverage compared to zone splits in the NFL. Geno is averaging 72% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage than man this year.

· Meanwhile, Sean McVay’s offense is averaging 37% more yards per attempt against zone than man coverage (5th-largest gap).

· Stafford has crushed defenses without an elite pass rush this season averaging 8.1 yppp when kept clean (6th) and Seattle’s defense is middling in that department.

· Seahawks edge defender Boye Mafe has seven straight games with a sack but he will be shut down by RT Rob Havenstein, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Rams WR Puka Nacua has had 22 touches gain at least 15 yards (6th-most) but he will be limited by CB Tariq Woolen, who is conceding 0.80 yards per cover snap (13th).

· Seattle nickelback Devon Witherspoon will battle with Cooper Kupp on the inside as he leads all rookies with 10 forced incompletions, and he is allowing only 0.71 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd).

· McVay’s teams are 10-4 ATS against Pete Carroll since he took over in Los Angeles.

· Our model makes Seattle a 2.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.7 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 45.5 points or more.