Game Analysis

DALLAS (-9) vs Seattle

· Dallas is scoring 41.0 points per game at home this season after dismantling the Commanders on Thanksgiving and Dak Prescott has been slinging it downfield lately.

· The Cowboys are averaging 0.96 EPA/target on passes with at least 10 air yards in the last 7 weeks compared to 0.33 EPA/target on such throws in the first 5 games.

· However, I’m not sure Prescott will have clean enough pockets to look deep on Thursday night. Dallas RT Terence Steele has surrendered 35 pressures (7th-most) and he will struggle versus edge defender Boye Mafe, who ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb is averaging 0.66 EPA/target (2nd) but he has been held to less than 60 yards in the last two games and he could be limited again this week. Seahawks nickelback Devon Witherspoon is allowing only 0.64 yards per slot cover snap (3rd).

· Seattle’s defense has an 85.4% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest) and they will contain Dak Prescott, whose yards per attempt versus zone this season is just 74% of his yards per attempt against man coverage (30th).

· Dallas cornerback DaRon Bland has already broken the NFL record with 5 pick-sixes this season and he will limit wide receiver DK Metcalf, who is averaging 2.01 yards per route run (17th). Bland will be hunting for another interception as Geno Smith has a 3.9% turnover-worthy play rate (30th).

· Smith’s yards per attempt against man coverage this year is just 71% of his yards per attempt versus zone and Geno will struggle as the Cowboys have a league-high 41.2% man rate.

· The Seahawks offensive line ranks 28th in pass-blocking efficiency this season because starting LT Charles Cross and starting RT Abraham Lucas have combined for just 37% of Seattle’s tackle snaps. The Seahawks ranked 23rd in pass-blocking efficiency last year when the two starting tackles were rookies and they should improve this game with the likely return of Lucas, who has been out since week 1.

· Seattle will be desperate for Lucas to suit up as the Dallas defense leads the NFL with a 47.1% pressure rate.

· Our model favors Dallas by 9.0 points, with a predicted total of 46.8 points, but the Cowboys’ rating has been enhanced because they’ve played mostly below average teams this season and they’ve historically been much better, relatively, against bad teams. However, Dallas is just 7-19 ATS in the Dak Prescott era when off a win and facing a team with a winning record and Seattle is 20-5-1 ATS under coach Pete Carroll when coming off consecutive losses. I used Seattle in my spread pool.