Game Analysis

Seattle (-3) vs ARIZONA

· The Seahawks can make the playoffs with a win and a Packers loss. Seattle’s offensive line could be getting back two starters this week in center Evan Brown and guard Phil Haynes.

· Shane Waldron’s offense is averaging 33% more yards per attempt against zone than man coverage (6th-largest gap) and the Seahawks have a favorable matchup versus the Cardinals with an 82.2% zone coverage rate (8th-highest). Geno Smith averaged 7.7 yppp in the first game versus Arizona’s defense.

· The Cardinals had the 3rd-highest success rate from an offense this season (58.7%) in last week’s win in Philadelphia.

· Arizona RB James Conner 128 yards on 26 carries last week and the Cardinals will continue going to the bell cow as Seattle’s defense is surrendering a 42.9% rush success rate (30th).

· Arizona’s offensive line will be without left tackle DJ Humphries, who tore his ACL against the Eagles. Humphries ranks 16th in pass-blocking efficiency and is worth 0.7 points by our metrics.

· The Seahawks are surrendering 0.31 EPA/target to tight ends (27th) and they will struggle against TE Trey McBride, who is averaging 2.08 yards per route run (2nd).

· Keep in mind that teams in a must-win (i.e. eliminated with a loss) in the final two weeks of the season are just 71-102-5 ATS against teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

· Our model favors the Cardinals by 0.1 but the matchups favor Seattle. With all things considered the fair line is Seattle by 2.5 points with a predicted total of 46.9 points.