San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – WASHINGTON (+9.5) over San Francisco

Lean – Under 41.5

Washington’s interim head coach Bill Callahan has made it clear he wants to run the ball, which is a fine strategy against Miami but unlikely to work moving forward. The Redskins rank 27th in run efficiency and won’t find success this week versus San Francisco’s 10th-rated rush defense. Chris Thompson is 1 of 4 running backs to average more than 2 yards per route run but he is doubtful to play on Sunday due to turf toe. The only remaining bright spot for Washington’s offense is Terry McLaurin, whose 2.28 yards per route run is on pace for the highest among qualifying rookie wide receivers since Odell Beckham in 2014. However, Richard Sherman is surrendering just 0.71 yards per cover snap (9th) and limit the third-round wide receiver. The Redskins offensive line surprisingly ranks around average in pass blocking efficiency even without 7-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams but I expect the O-line to struggle this week. The 49ers have a 10% sack rate (2nd) led by rookie Nick Bosa, who is 1 of 9 players with 30 pressures despite already having the bye week.

Washington’s defensive front could find some success in this matchup as well. Matt Ioannidis is 1 of 12 interior defenders with 20 pressures and should apply pressure lining up across from right guard Mike Person, who ranks 9th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Meanwhile, Niners’ backup right tackle Daniel Brunskill will likely struggle to contain Pro Bowl edge defender Ryan Kerrigan. Washington’s pass rush has forced 15 holding penalties (2nd-most) and Jimmy Garoppolo will need to get the ball out quickly. I believe the Niners will mostly focus on their ground game against a Redskins rush defense that is ranked 24th.

I expect both teams to be run-heavy with Washington’s passing options limited and the Niners playing it conservative to protect their quarterback. Kyle Shanahan has mentioned the dominant defense has affected his play calling this season, asking Garoppolo to be more of a caretaker. Our model favors San Francisco by just 7 points and Washington applies to a very good 73-19 ATS contrary angle that plays on really bad teams matched up against teams that have been really good. That angle looks for a difference in average scoring margin of more than 20.0 points and plays the bad team (Washington’s average scoring margin is -12.8 points and SF’s scoring margin is +16.6 for a total difference of 29.4 points). I like Washington here and I can certainly see the Niners’ letting down after last week’s road upset over their division rival Rams.

The model has a predicted total of 42.0 points, which is about what the market has, but the matchups strongly favor the under and the under is 53-10-2 in games where the home team is a dog of more than 7 points and the total is greater than 40 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

49ers
Redskins

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 30.6 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 50.6% 29.6%
Sack Rate 3.8% 10.4%
Int Rate 3.4% 4.6%
Deep Pass Rate 11.1% 17.6%
Big Pass Yards 39.5% 45.8%
NYPP 7.6 4.2

Rush

Rush Plays 39.0 21.4
RB YPR 4.7 4.1
Stuff Rate 22.6% 32.3%
Succ Rush Plays 45.0% 46.5%
Big Rush Yards 44.4% 31.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.0

Game

All Snaps 69.6 55.4
Early Down Succ 48.8% 41.7%
Succ Rate 47.6% 36.9%
Big Yards Rate 44.7% 46.6%
Yards Per Play 5.9 4.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 2.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.2 27.1
Run Ratio 56.0% 39.1%
Starting Field Pos 33.3 28.2
Game Control 8.3 -8.3

Points 29.4 12.8

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@TB	31 – 17 W	4.2	42.9% / 33.3%	3.6% / 7.7%	3.7% / 8.3%	5.6 / 4.5	34.4% / 53.8%	34.4% / 23.1%	3.1 / 4.7	60 / 65	40.0% / 43.1%	38.3% / 41.5%	48.0% / 27.1%	4.3 / 4.5	1.7% / 1.5%	53.3% / 40.0%	29.4 / 28.6
2	@CIN	41 – 17 W	16.7	65.4% / 37.0%	0.0% / 8.7%	3.8% / 2.4%	12.0 / 6.3	64.3% / 31.6%	9.5% / 52.6%	6.2 / 1.3	68 / 65	68.4% / 30.4%	64.7% / 35.4%	63.1% / 53.2%	8.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	61.8% / 29.2%	29.6 / 25.6
3	PIT	24 – 20 W	-2.2	51.5% / 24.1%	3.0% / 6.9%	6.3% / 3.7%	8.1 / 5.5	52.5% / 50.0%	20.0% / 27.3%	4.2 / 3.6	73 / 51	52.5% / 39.5%	52.1% / 35.3%	40.1% / 52.3%	6.0 / 4.7	4.1% / 2.0%	54.8% / 43.1%	38.3 / 26.8
5	CLE	31 – 3 W	18.3	41.9% / 25.0%	6.5% / 14.3%	0.0% / 8.3%	5.5 / 2.8	37.5% / 33.3%	20.0% / 22.2%	6.9 / 5.7	71 / 46	40.4% / 34.3%	39.4% / 28.3%	52.0% / 71.1%	6.3 / 3.9	0.0% / 4.3%	56.3% / 39.1%	34.0 / 26.1
6	@LA	20 – 7 W	4.5	51.4% / 28.6%	5.7% / 14.3%	3.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 1.7	36.6% / 63.6%	29.3% / 36.4%	2.4 / 5.0	76 / 50	42.9% / 61.1%	43.4% / 44.0%	19.9% / 29.3%	4.4 / 3.1	1.3% / 2.0%	53.9% / 44.0%	35.4 / 34.0

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	27 – 32 L	4.0	47.8% / 55.0%	2.2% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 7.8	30.8% / 45.2%	23.1% / 22.6%	2.2 / 4.0	59 / 71	44.2% / 47.1%	44.1% / 50.7%	40.2% / 42.0%	6.7 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	22.0% / 43.7%	23.5 / 31.4
2	DAL	21 – 31 L	-4.6	57.9% / 61.3%	2.6% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	5.5 / 8.4	41.2% / 64.7%	17.6% / 8.8%	2.8 / 6.3	55 / 65	59.5% / 64.2%	52.7% / 63.1%	22.4% / 43.5%	4.6 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	30.9% / 52.3%	30.7 / 19.3
3	CHI	15 – 31 L	-13.9	57.4% / 55.9%	8.5% / 8.8%	7.0% / 3.2%	6.1 / 6.1	57.1% / 41.7%	19.0% / 20.8%	3.3 / 3.8	68 / 58	61.8% / 46.7%	57.4% / 50.0%	25.3% / 28.5%	5.2 / 5.1	2.9% / 0.0%	30.9% / 41.4%	28.7 / 36.9
4	@NYG	3 – 24 L	-13.4	35.5% / 54.8%	9.7% / 0.0%	14.3% / 6.5%	3.9 / 7.3	23.5% / 48.6%	17.6% / 18.9%	3.2 / 4.4	48 / 68	35.1% / 49.1%	31.3% / 51.5%	41.5% / 48.8%	3.7 / 5.7	0.0% / 2.9%	35.4% / 54.4%	25.9 / 26.8
5	NE	7 – 33 L	-9.4	30.3% / 48.9%	18.2% / 8.5%	3.7% / 2.3%	2.3 / 6.6	45.0% / 44.4%	15.0% / 25.9%	7.3 / 4.8	53 / 74	42.9% / 51.7%	35.8% / 47.3%	50.5% / 49.3%	4.2 / 6.0	1.9% / 0.0%	37.7% / 36.5%	23.8 / 32.4
6	@MIA	17 – 16 W	6.1	40.0% / 33.3%	0.0% / 10.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	6.6 / 3.9	45.5% / 52.4%	18.2% / 19.0%	4.4 / 4.0	58 / 69	50.0% / 42.3%	43.1% / 39.1%	42.8% / 28.0%	5.4 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	56.9% / 30.4%	27.3 / 28.3

San Francisco 49ers @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Oct 20

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis