Game Analysis

Lean – Over (49.5) – San Francisco (-14) vs WASHINGTON

· Jacoby Brissett was expected to start his first game for Washington earlier in the week, which would have been an upgrade given that Brissett has a 45.1% career success rate compared to Sam Howell’s 43.2% career success rate. However, Howell has been named the starter.

· Howell has a 9.7% sack rate and he’ll be under duress in this game as Washington starting LT Charles Leno is likely out and backup LT Cornelius Lucas will struggle across from edge defender Chase Young, who ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Commanders’ guards Saahdiq Charles and Chris Paul have combined to surrender 58 pressures this year and whoever starts at left guard will get beat by interior defender Javon Hargrave, who has 49 pressures (10th).

· The 49ers lost LT Trent Williams and LG Aaron Banks in the loss to the Ravens on Christmas. It looks like Williams will suit up this week, but Banks is likely out, which provides an opportunity for Washington interior defender Jonathan Allen, who has 46 pressures (14th).

· San Francisco WR Brandon Aiyuk leads the NFL averaging 0.75 EPA/target and WR Deebo Samuel is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (6th). Commanders’ CB Kendall Fuller, who is conceding 0.82 yards per cover snap (15th) is one of the defensive backs that are out for Washington so the Niners wide receivers should continue to be productive.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 13.2 points, with a predicted total of 52.5 points.