Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **SEATTLE (+7 Even) over San Francisco

· Geno Smith’s triceps contusion is painful, but it typically doesn’t result in a performance hit and the Seahawks will start him under center on Thanksgiving night.

· Geno is averaging 24% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz this season and Smith will have a favorable matchup as the 49ers have an 80.1% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).

· San Francisco traded for edge defender Chase Young because they wanted to get pressure sending just four pass rushers and he has a sack in both his games with the 49ers while Nick Bosa ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency on the other edge. However, the pair will be limited in this game.

· Seahawks LT Charles Cross did not allow a single pressure last week against the Rams and this will likely be the first game since week 1 that Seattle’s offensive line will have both starting tackles on the field. Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross are combining to allow a 6.0% pressure rate since the start of the 2022 season when they both entered the league. The Seahawks’ backup tackles combined to surrender an 11.7% pressure rate this year.

· Geno Smith will have enough clean pockets to look downfield for DK Metcalf, whose 19 targets with at least 20 air yards rank 7th among wide receivers. San Francisco All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga tore his ACL and backup S Ji’Ayir Brown will not be able to limit explosive passes.

· Seattle’s defensive line will wreak havoc at home against the current state of the 49ers offensive line. LG Aaron Banks is dealing with a toe injury and RG Spencer Burford has knee issues. Burford ranks 45th in pass blocking efficiency out of 47 qualifying guards even if he is able to suit up. Seahawks interior defenders Leonard Williams and Jarren Reed have combined for 57 pressures and should put pressure on Brock Purdy from the middle of the line.

· San Francisco RT Colton McKivitz ranks 10th-worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from edge rusher Boye Mafe, who has 7.0 sacks (15th).

· Seattle CB Tariq Woolen is conceding 0.84 yards per cover snap (20th) and he will contain Brandon Aijuk, who is leading all wide receivers with 0.82 EPA/target.

· Our model favors the 49ers by just 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points and the Niners apply to a 21-72-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that plays against road favorites of more than 3 points that have an average scoring margin of more than +10 points and are coming off a win of more than 10 points.

Seattle is a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 -110 or better and 1-Star down to +6 points.