San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – SEATTLE (+3/+3.5) over San Francisco

The advanced spread for this game was pick but now we’re seeing the market implying San Francisco has more than a 60% chance of winning due to Seattle’s perceived injury disaster. Seattle’s 6th-rated ground game will take a hit without Chris Carson but he isn’t a factor in the receiving game and thus isn’t worth more than a half point. The Seahawks defense allowed 51 combined points to Carolina and Arizona, but they will likely be much better on Sunday with the probable return of edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and cornerback Shaquill Griffin. Clowney has a 25% pass rush win rate (7th) and Griffin is surrendering only 0.84 yards per cover snap (9th), but both missed the last 2 games. Left tackle Duane Brown’s injury will be the most significant as he has conceded only 1 sack all season and we have him valued at 0.8 points. Backup tackle George Fant will have a hard time containing edge defender Nick Bosa, ranked 7th in pass rushing efficiency.

The 49ers will earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win or San Francisco could be relegated to the wild card round with a loss. Seattle’s injuries are overblown and they are healthier from a player value standpoint than they have been the past couple weeks. The Seahawks are 17-5-1 ATS in night games under Pete Carroll as Seattle’s excellent home field advantage is intensified slightly in prime time. Our model favors the 49ers by 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 45.5 points, but I’ll lean with Seattle on the basis of a 90-35-1 ATS week 17 situation that applies to the Seahawks.

Team Stats
Game Log

49ers
Seahawks

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.7 35.1
Succ Pass Plays 48.5% 37.7%
Sack Rate 7.1% 9.6%
Int Rate 2.9% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 13.0% 15.0%
Big Pass Yards 46.8% 35.0%
NYPP 7.3 4.6

Rush

Rush Plays 31.6 24.7
RB YPR 4.7 4.3
Stuff Rate 24.8% 24.3%
Succ Rush Plays 42.5% 49.6%
Big Rush Yards 45.2% 37.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.5

Game

All Snaps 64.3 59.8
Early Down Succ 47.1% 46.8%
Succ Rate 46.0% 43.2%
Big Yards Rate 48.8% 41.2%
Yards Per Play 6.0 4.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.9 29.1
Run Ratio 49.3% 42.0%
Starting Field Pos 32.3 28.3
Game Control 5.3 -5.3

Points 29.8 18.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@TB	31 – 17 W	4.2	42.9% / 33.3%	3.6% / 7.7%	3.7% / 8.3%	5.6 / 4.5	34.4% / 53.8%	34.4% / 23.1%	3.1 / 4.7	60 / 65	40.0% / 43.1%	38.3% / 41.5%	48.0% / 27.1%	4.3 / 4.5	1.7% / 1.5%	53.3% / 40.0%	29.4 / 28.6
2	@CIN	41 – 17 W	16.7	65.4% / 37.0%	0.0% / 8.7%	3.8% / 2.4%	12.0 / 6.3	64.3% / 31.6%	9.5% / 52.6%	6.2 / 1.3	68 / 65	68.4% / 30.4%	64.7% / 35.4%	63.1% / 53.2%	8.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	61.8% / 29.2%	29.6 / 25.6
3	PIT	24 – 20 W	-2.2	51.5% / 24.1%	3.0% / 6.9%	6.3% / 3.7%	8.1 / 5.5	52.5% / 50.0%	20.0% / 27.3%	4.2 / 3.6	73 / 51	52.5% / 39.5%	52.1% / 35.3%	40.1% / 52.3%	6.0 / 4.7	4.1% / 2.0%	54.8% / 43.1%	38.3 / 26.8
5	CLE	31 – 3 W	18.3	41.9% / 25.0%	6.5% / 14.3%	0.0% / 8.3%	5.5 / 2.8	37.5% / 33.3%	20.0% / 22.2%	6.9 / 5.7	71 / 46	40.4% / 34.3%	39.4% / 28.3%	52.0% / 71.1%	6.3 / 3.9	0.0% / 4.3%	56.3% / 39.1%	34.0 / 26.1
6	@LA	20 – 7 W	4.5	51.4% / 28.6%	5.7% / 14.3%	3.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 1.7	36.6% / 63.6%	29.3% / 36.4%	2.4 / 5.0	76 / 50	42.9% / 61.1%	43.4% / 44.0%	19.9% / 29.3%	4.4 / 3.1	1.3% / 2.0%	53.9% / 44.0%	35.4 / 34.0
7	@WAS	9 – 0 W	1.5	34.8% / 26.7%	8.7% / 20.0%	4.8% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.3	46.2% / 38.5%	25.6% / 23.1%	3.5 / 4.0	62 / 41	40.9% / 35.5%	41.9% / 34.1%	41.0% / 38.3%	4.6 / 3.8	0.0% / 2.4%	62.9% / 63.4%	32.5 / 23.8
8	CAR	51 – 13 W	19.5	52.0% / 31.8%	12.0% / 15.9%	4.5% / 8.1%	6.2 / 2.3	36.8% / 47.4%	23.7% / 21.1%	6.1 / 6.8	63 / 63	43.1% / 43.8%	42.9% / 36.5%	59.8% / 52.6%	6.2 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	60.3% / 30.2%	45.6 / 25.4
9	@ARI	28 – 25 W	5.3	55.3% / 48.1%	2.6% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.6	32.3% / 60.9%	35.5% / 17.4%	3.3 / 6.7	69 / 50	38.8% / 59.5%	44.9% / 54.0%	50.9% / 58.3%	6.0 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	44.9% / 46.0%	27.6 / 18.3
10	SEA	24 – 27 L	1.9	37.3% / 53.8%	9.8% / 12.8%	2.2% / 2.9%	4.2 / 4.8	33.3% / 58.8%	25.9% / 17.6%	3.2 / 4.3	78 / 73	36.7% / 59.6%	35.9% / 56.2%	25.2% / 28.6%	3.9 / 4.6	2.6% / 4.1%	34.6% / 46.6%	25.0 / 37.0
11	ARI	30 – 26 W	-3.6	57.4% / 43.2%	4.3% / 10.8%	4.4% / 0.0%	8.7 / 3.5	15.8% / 56.0%	42.1% / 20.0%	1.8 / 5.4	66 / 62	47.1% / 51.0%	45.5% / 48.4%	47.7% / 33.5%	6.7 / 4.3	0.0% / 3.2%	28.8% / 40.3%	29.8 / 29.0
12	GB	37 – 8 W	16.2	52.2% / 26.2%	13.0% / 11.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.9 / 1.9	36.4% / 39.3%	31.8% / 35.7%	5.1 / 4.2	45 / 70	48.6% / 38.5%	44.4% / 31.4%	69.3% / 22.2%	7.5 / 2.8	0.0% / 1.4%	48.9% / 40.0%	40.9 / 25.2
13	@BAL	17 – 20 L	-0.3	43.5% / 37.5%	8.7% / 4.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 4.4	41.4% / 60.5%	17.2% / 10.5%	6.0 / 4.7	52 / 62	44.7% / 53.1%	42.3% / 51.6%	53.2% / 35.7%	6.4 / 4.6	1.9% / 1.6%	55.8% / 61.3%	22.9 / 33.1
14	@NO	48 – 46 W	-1.2	51.3% / 56.1%	7.7% / 0.0%	2.8% / 0.0%	9.1 / 8.5	58.3% / 55.6%	16.7% / 22.2%	6.8 / 4.3	63 / 68	55.1% / 57.4%	54.0% / 55.9%	70.5% / 51.6%	8.2 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.5%	38.1% / 39.7%	30.5 / 34.8
15	ATL	22 – 23 L	2.1	51.4% / 48.8%	2.9% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.5 / 4.9	55.6% / 45.0%	18.5% / 15.0%	4.4 / 4.5	62 / 61	57.1% / 46.8%	53.2% / 47.5%	34.2% / 27.6%	5.0 / 4.8	3.2% / 1.6%	43.5% / 32.8%	31.4 / 27.6
16	LA	34 – 31 W	-2.9	39.4% / 45.7%	18.2% / 0.0%	7.4% / 2.2%	6.5 / 7.0	56.5% / 50.0%	21.7% / 20.8%	5.2 / 3.0	56 / 70	50.0% / 49.1%	46.4% / 47.1%	56.9% / 36.2%	6.0 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	41.1% / 34.3%	31.8 / 29.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	21 – 20 W	-0.8	37.5% / 46.4%	16.7% / 8.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.1	36.0% / 21.4%	28.0% / 35.7%	2.9 / 2.4	49 / 70	40.0% / 42.6%	36.7% / 41.4%	61.4% / 49.9%	4.8 / 6.1	2.0% / 4.3%	51.0% / 20.0%	31.0 / 27.8
2	@PIT	28 – 26 W	0.8	56.4% / 42.9%	10.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.0 / 5.1	45.5% / 56.3%	24.2% / 25.0%	4.6 / 5.1	72 / 51	55.4% / 52.5%	51.4% / 47.1%	42.0% / 31.4%	5.9 / 5.1	2.8% / 0.0%	45.8% / 31.4%	25.6 / 34.5
3	NO	27 – 33 L	-10.4	50.0% / 55.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.6	42.3% / 47.8%	26.9% / 26.1%	4.2 / 3.8	76 / 50	52.6% / 57.9%	47.4% / 52.0%	56.7% / 21.1%	6.8 / 5.3	1.3% / 2.0%	34.2% / 46.0%	23.5 / 28.9
4	@ARI	27 – 10 W	11.8	56.3% / 44.4%	12.5% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	7.0 / 5.7	63.0% / 56.5%	25.9% / 13.0%	4.3 / 5.0	59 / 59	63.3% / 53.1%	59.3% / 49.2%	27.4% / 37.1%	5.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	45.8% / 39.0%	27.6 / 21.9
5	LA	30 – 29 W	-1.2	62.5% / 46.9%	4.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	10.9 / 8.1	53.5% / 38.9%	16.3% / 16.7%	3.9 / 4.6	67 / 67	63.0% / 48.2%	56.7% / 44.8%	45.0% / 52.6%	6.4 / 7.1	1.5% / 1.5%	64.2% / 26.9%	28.7 / 26.2
6	@CLE	32 – 28 W	-3.3	61.1% / 45.9%	8.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 8.1%	7.9 / 6.7	52.6% / 50.0%	15.8% / 20.8%	4.5 / 6.5	74 / 61	61.0% / 48.0%	56.8% / 47.5%	46.9% / 48.5%	6.1 / 6.7	1.4% / 1.6%	51.4% / 39.3%	31.8 / 36.0
7	BAL	16 – 30 L	-2.9	38.1% / 28.6%	2.4% / 4.8%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.7 / 6.7	57.7% / 42.9%	26.9% / 14.3%	4.1 / 5.7	68 / 56	41.2% / 37.5%	45.6% / 37.5%	49.0% / 62.1%	5.1 / 6.1	1.5% / 0.0%	38.2% / 62.5%	25.2 / 23.9
8	@ATL	27 – 20 W	11.4	59.1% / 59.3%	9.1% / 3.7%	0.0% / 1.9%	7.8 / 8.2	66.7% / 47.1%	15.2% / 29.4%	4.6 / 4.1	55 / 71	72.7% / 61.0%	63.6% / 56.3%	44.7% / 28.7%	5.9 / 7.2	0.0% / 2.8%	60.0% / 23.9%	35.1 / 21.8
9	TB	40 – 34 W	-3.4	60.9% / 47.8%	6.5% / 4.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 6.9	54.5% / 53.8%	18.2% / 23.1%	6.6 / 3.8	68 / 72	63.3% / 50.9%	58.8% / 50.0%	45.5% / 25.4%	7.2 / 5.8	1.5% / 1.4%	32.4% / 36.1%	31.0 / 31.3
10	@SF	27 – 24 W	-1.9	53.8% / 37.3%	12.8% / 9.8%	2.9% / 2.2%	4.8 / 4.2	58.8% / 33.3%	17.6% / 25.9%	4.3 / 3.2	73 / 78	59.6% / 36.7%	56.2% / 35.9%	28.6% / 25.2%	4.6 / 3.9	4.1% / 2.6%	46.6% / 34.6%	37.0 / 25.0
12	@PHI	17 – 9 W	6.8	29.0% / 56.3%	19.4% / 6.3%	4.0% / 4.4%	5.6 / 5.0	42.3% / 52.2%	19.2% / 21.7%	6.7 / 4.6	57 / 71	35.7% / 60.3%	35.1% / 54.9%	70.1% / 22.7%	6.1 / 4.8	1.8% / 4.2%	45.6% / 32.4%	34.7 / 26.0
13	MIN	37 – 30 W	0.3	51.5% / 44.7%	6.1% / 0.0%	3.2% / 2.6%	6.8 / 7.3	67.4% / 64.3%	14.0% / 28.6%	5.1 / 5.6	76 / 52	62.7% / 51.2%	60.5% / 50.0%	41.0% / 38.4%	5.8 / 6.8	1.3% / 3.8%	56.6% / 26.9%	37.3 / 22.6
14	@LA	12 – 28 L	-10.1	41.5% / 59.4%	12.2% / 0.0%	2.8% / 6.3%	4.9 / 9.2	61.9% / 51.4%	9.5% / 20.0%	5.0 / 4.6	62 / 67	52.2% / 56.6%	48.4% / 55.2%	31.8% / 52.5%	5.0 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	33.9% / 52.2%	22.9 / 22.8
15	@CAR	30 – 24 W	10.9	58.6% / 53.5%	6.9% / 2.3%	3.7% / 7.1%	9.4 / 6.3	47.1% / 62.1%	17.6% / 20.7%	4.5 / 5.0	63 / 72	56.0% / 60.0%	52.4% / 56.9%	50.0% / 28.0%	6.8 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	54.0% / 40.3%	31.0 / 21.5
16	ARI	13 – 27 L	-6.3	30.6% / 34.5%	13.9% / 6.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.7 / 5.5	45.0% / 55.0%	40.0% / 15.0%	4.6 / 6.3	56 / 69	41.9% / 51.0%	35.7% / 46.4%	65.2% / 55.1%	4.0 / 6.0	1.8% / 0.0%	35.7% / 58.0%	27.5 / 31.5

San Francisco 49ers @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Dec 29

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis