Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – First Half Over (22.5 -105) – PHILADELPHIA (-6) vs San Francisco

• The 49ers linebacker situation is a disaster. I’ve never seen anything like this for a team in the playoffs. Let’s start from the beginning. All-Pro LB Fred Warner has been out since week 6 with a broken ankle. San Francisco’s defense is allowing 0.13 EPA/play worse with Warner off the field. Warner is the most valuable linebacker in the NFL, worth 2 points by our numbers.
• The 49ers defense slotted in backup LB Tatum Bethune to fill in at middle linebacker for Warner, but he suffered a season-ending groin injury last week. San Francisco’s other starting LB, Dee Winters, is also likely sidelined for this game.
• The 49ers’ presumed starting linebackers on Sunday are Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow, who have played fewer than 100 snaps combined this season, and Eagles RB Saquon Barkley will feast in this game.
• San Francisco’s defense has a league-low 3.3% sack rate, the lowest of any defense since the 2021 Falcons, as they’ve been without Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa since week 3.
• Jalen Hurts will have time in the pocket to throw downfield to wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in a favorable matchup. Hurts ranks 4th relatively versus a standard pass rush compared to the blitz, and the 49ers don’t use much creativity with extra pass rushers up front. San Francisco’s defense has a 77% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest).
• Philadelphia’s offensive line is getting back RT Lane Johnson, who is worth 1.7 points according to our metrics. The Eagles are averaging 0.7 yppl more with Johnson on the field compared to off since 2022.
• The 49ers will be getting back a starting tackle of their own in LT Trent Williams. San Francisco’s offense is averaging 0.12 EPA/play more with Williams on the field compared to off in the last four years.
• The Eagles were one of 6 defenses to allow fewer than a 40% success rate after week 10 when they traded for edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who has 71 pressures (9th).
• However, Philadelphia’s defense will struggle in this matchup. Eagles’ defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s system stems from baiting passes into zone-match traps against spread looks. Heavy sets neutralize that by grinding yards and creating conflicts in run fits. Philadelphia’s defense is surrendering 20% more yards per pass play against heavy personnel compared to light (29th), and San Francisco’s offense puts just 2 wide receivers on 39% of snaps (3rd-most).
• Christian McCaffrey is averaging 1.79 yards per route run (2nd), and Brock Purdy will feature him as a receiver as the Eagles are one of 5 defenses in the NFL allowing more EPA/target to running backs than to wide receivers/tight ends.
• We’re taking the first half over here because Trent Williams’ hamstring could be re-aggravated at any time, and both of these coaches have shown the propensity to sit on the ball in the second half if they have a commanding lead.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 5.6 points, with a predicted total of 49.6 points, and the Niners apply to a negative 5-25 ATS playoff road underdog situation.

First-Half Over is a Strong Opinion at 23 points or less.