Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – Philadelphia Team Total Over (21.5 -120)

PHILADELPHIA (+3) over San Francisco

· Philadelphia should not be a field goal underdog at home to any team in the NFL. Strong matchups for San Francisco’s offense make the team total have more value than the side in the NFC Championship rematch.

· Eagles RT Lane Johnson was inactive against the Bills due to a groin injury but the All-Pro will be back in uniform this week to limit 49ers edge defender Nick Bosa, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Jalen Hurts could be pushed once again from a trailing position taking the governor off this Eagles offense. Philadelphia has been trailing at halftime in each of the last 4 games and they averaged 31 points versus the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills.

· Hurts has gone against two-high safety coverage on 72% of his dropbacks the last two weeks and wide receiver AJ Brown had only 45 yards against Kansas City and Buffalo’s defense. San Francisco’s defense has called single-high safety coverage on more than half of opponent dropbacks since week 7 and Brown is averaging 3.87 yards per route run versus single-high (2nd). Brown will get some deep targets with 49ers All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga on the sideline due to a torn ACL.

· Kyle Shanahan will find ways to successfully attack the middle of the field with 10 days to prepare as the Eagles are missing both starting linebackers as well as six-time Pro Bowl interior defender Fletcher Cox.

· Philadelphia’s defense is allowing a 58% success rate to tight ends (24th) and ranks 25th in EPA allowed on the 4th highest rate of pass plays over the middle. George Kittle leads tight ends averaging 0.74 EPA/target and Brock Purdy will throw to him as well as 49ers WR Deebo Samuel between the numbers.

· Eagles CB James Bradberry is allowing just 0.94 yards per cover snap (17th) and he will limit Brandon Aiyuk, who leads wide receivers averaging 0.83 EPA/target.

· San Francisco RT Colton McKivitz ranks 40th in pass blocking efficiency out of 50 qualifying tackles and he will struggle across from Haason Reddick, who has 8.5 sacks (13th).

· Philadelphia’s defense will contain RB Christian McCaffrey as they are allowing -0.15 EPA/target to running backs (8th) and conceding just a 35.4% rush success rate (5th).

· Our model favors the Eagles by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 51.7 points, and the situation is strongly in Philly’s favor, as the Niners apply to a 36-90-3 ATS situation that applies to road teams that have won and covered the spread in 3 or more consecutive games while the Eagles apply to an 87-22-1 ATS situation.

Philadelphia’s Team Total Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 23 points or less. The alternate play, if you don’t have team totals, is Philly plus the points.