San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – San Francisco (+12.5) over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles historic success on 3rd down continued on Monday night as they converted 6 of 12 3^rd downs into 1^st and 10. At 51% for the season, Philadelphia is trying to become the first team in the last 5 years to convert more than half of their 3rd downs for an entire season but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll continue to have that much success. The Eagles have added 15 more points than the second-best team on third down this season but their 1st-2nd down offense ranks just 24th in my numbers. If Philadelphia regresses on 3^rd down, which is likely, then their offense will suddenly look much worse. San Francisco’s defense has been particularly bad on 3rd down allowing a 50% conversion rate (last) and they’re due to be better in that category going forward.

CJ Beathard was unsurprisingly not very effective in his first start last week, averaging just 4.3 yppp. Rookie quarterbacks getting their first start this late into the season are generally a bad proposition as it is usually a move out of desperation rather than merit. I expect a heavy dose of Carlos Hyde as long as this game is close but he’ll have to go against an Eagles rush defense surrendering just 3.3 yards per carry the last 3 weeks. San Francisco is 0-7 but the Niners have lost 5 of those 7 games by 3 points or fewer and winless teams at 0-7 or worse are 21-3 ATS as underdogs of more than 11 points since 1985. I’ll lean with San Francisco in what looks like a letdown spot for an Eagles team coming off a satisfying Monday night win over division rival Washington.

Team Stats
Game Log

49ers
Eagles

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.1 36.3
Succ Pass Plays 37.6% 50.0%
Sack Rate 7.8% 4.4%
Int Rate 1.9% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 15.0% 18.5%
Big Pass Yards 30.5% 39.7%
NYPP 5.0 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 22.6 36.6
RB YPR 4.4 3.5
Stuff Rate 26.4% 24.2%
Succ Rush Plays 46.3% 43.8%
Big Rush Yards 54.5% 42.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.6

Game

All Snaps 65.7 72.9
Early Down Succ 43.4% 49.4%
Succ Rate 40.9% 47.4%
Big Yards Rate 41.4% 40.8%
Yards Per Play 4.8 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.4 28.9
Run Ratio 34.3% 50.8%
Starting Field Pos 26.6 30.2
Game Control -7.4 7.4

Points 17.6 26.6

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CAR	3 – 23 L	-12.4	46.2% / 45.8%	10.3% / 0.0%	2.9% / 4.2%	4.3 / 7.1	26.7% / 39.0%	26.7% / 14.6%	3.4 / 2.9	54 / 65	48.7% / 42.6%	40.7% / 41.5%	33.6% / 29.7%	4.0 / 4.5	1.9% / 1.5%	27.8% / 63.1%	30.1 / 33.7
2	@SEA	9 – 12 L	-2.0	20.7% / 33.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	3.7% / 0.0%	3.1 / 4.3	52.6% / 37.2%	21.1% / 20.9%	8.4 / 3.1	48 / 85	38.9% / 37.5%	33.3% / 35.3%	49.2% / 23.7%	5.2 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	39.6% / 50.6%	24.5 / 23.9
3	LA	39 – 41 L	-8.5	46.3% / 64.3%	9.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.4	51.5% / 51.5%	27.3% / 30.3%	3.4 / 3.8	74 / 61	47.2% / 57.4%	48.6% / 57.4%	50.8% / 55.4%	5.7 / 6.9	1.4% / 3.3%	44.6% / 54.1%	36.1 / 36.1
4	@ARI	15 – 18 L	1.4	30.8% / 49.1%	5.8% / 10.5%	2.0% / 2.0%	4.0 / 5.6	37.0% / 39.1%	25.9% / 30.4%	3.5 / 2.3	79 / 80	33.9% / 51.6%	32.9% / 46.3%	27.9% / 17.9%	3.9 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	34.2% / 28.8%	22.3 / 27.9
5	@IND	23 – 26 L	-3.3	50.0% / 44.7%	4.2% / 10.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.0 / 7.6	31.8% / 32.4%	31.8% / 32.4%	3.0 / 4.4	70 / 75	46.3% / 38.2%	44.3% / 38.7%	37.3% / 58.1%	5.7 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	31.4% / 49.3%	17.5 / 28.8
6	@WAS	24 – 26 L	-7.0	30.0% / 60.5%	6.0% / 2.6%	2.1% / 2.7%	5.0 / 8.6	65.0% / 38.2%	25.0% / 29.4%	4.3 / 2.8	70 / 72	41.2% / 51.8%	40.0% / 50.0%	50.4% / 43.6%	4.8 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.4%	28.6% / 47.2%	32.6 / 26.9
7	DAL	10 – 40 L	-20.1	39.5% / 51.9%	11.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3 / 8.7	59.1% / 68.9%	27.3% / 11.1%	4.7 / 5.9	65 / 72	48.0% / 66.7%	46.2% / 62.5%	40.7% / 57.0%	4.5 / 7.0	4.6% / 0.0%	33.8% / 62.5%	23.0 / 34.1

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@WAS	30 – 17 W	5.1	51.2% / 38.6%	4.9% / 9.1%	2.6% / 2.5%	7.3 / 4.5	36.0% / 58.8%	28.0% / 23.5%	2.4 / 3.8	66 / 61	44.0% / 49.0%	45.5% / 44.3%	37.8% / 38.3%	5.4 / 4.3	1.5% / 4.9%	37.9% / 27.9%	31.8 / 26.1
2	@KC	20 – 27 L	-2.0	44.2% / 50.0%	11.5% / 12.5%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.3	58.8% / 47.4%	17.6% / 26.3%	6.3 / 5.9	69 / 51	46.3% / 51.3%	47.8% / 49.0%	42.4% / 45.3%	5.9 / 6.7	1.4% / 0.0%	24.6% / 37.3%	26.1 / 35.6
3	NYG	27 – 24 W	4.0	41.2% / 59.6%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	4.7 / 7.8	48.7% / 23.5%	23.1% / 23.5%	5.0 / 2.9	73 / 64	47.3% / 55.8%	45.2% / 50.0%	30.4% / 23.4%	4.9 / 6.5	1.4% / 0.0%	53.4% / 26.6%	21.5 / 34.6
4	@LAC	26 – 24 W	6.2	46.9% / 42.5%	3.1% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 8.6	47.7% / 38.5%	20.5% / 46.2%	4.9 / 4.5	76 / 53	47.3% / 39.5%	47.4% / 41.5%	56.1% / 68.3%	6.0 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.9%	57.9% / 24.5%	22.1 / 22.2
5	ARI	34 – 7 W	16.7	48.4% / 41.3%	3.2% / 4.3%	3.3% / 0.0%	9.6 / 6.0	28.6% / 21.4%	22.9% / 35.7%	3.5 / 2.2	66 / 60	33.3% / 37.2%	37.9% / 36.7%	52.3% / 20.2%	6.4 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.7%	53.0% / 23.3%	34.1 / 19.3
6	@CAR	28 – 23 W	3.0	39.4% / 37.0%	9.1% / 3.7%	0.0% / 5.8%	6.3 / 4.2	37.9% / 48.0%	27.6% / 40.0%	3.6 / 3.2	62 / 79	41.9% / 45.0%	38.7% / 40.5%	54.2% / 20.7%	5.0 / 3.9	1.6% / 0.0%	46.8% / 31.6%	32.9 / 30.0
7	WAS	34 – 24 W	4.7	53.6% / 56.8%	10.7% / 9.1%	4.0% / 2.5%	8.7 / 6.1	29.4% / 47.4%	23.5% / 15.8%	3.8 / 4.0	62 / 63	39.6% / 62.5%	40.3% / 54.0%	63.4% / 46.4%	6.0 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	54.8% / 30.2%	32.5 / 27.7

San Francisco 49ers @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Oct 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis