Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – San Francisco Over (23.5 -125)

Lean – San Francisco (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

· San Francisco LT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel were sidelined in the first half against the Browns in week 6 and the 49ers have lost 3 consecutive games. However, it looks like both Williams and Samuel will be back on the field this week coming off the bye.

· San Francisco WR Jauan Jennings is averaging 0.24 EPA/target fewer than Samuel and he will provide a major spark to this offense.

· All-Pro LT Trent Williams is coming back at a perfect time to shut down Jacksonville edge rusher Josh Allen, who has 9.0 sacks (5th).

· Kyle Shanahan’s offense is known for manipulating the zone rules of opposing defenses. Brock Purdy is averaging 25% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage than man and he has a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense with an 83.1% zone coverage rate (6th-highest).

· Purdy will need to look downfield behind Jacksonville’s linebackers as the Jaguars defense is conceding just a 37% success rate to running backs (8th) and they will contain Christian McCaffrey, who leads all running backs averaging 0.48 EPA/target.

· San Francisco’s defense has a 40.3% pressure rate (5th-highest) and just added edge defender Chase Young, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency but I do not think they can hold up particularly with rookie RT Anton Harrison across from 49ers All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa, who has 44 pressures (5th).

· Trevor Lawrence has a 5.9% PFF turnover-worthy play rate when pressured (25th) and he will need to get the ball out fast to have any chance on Sunday.

· Lawrence is targeting tight ends on 26.7% of passes (5th-most) but TE Evan Engram will be held in check as San Francisco’s defense is allowing -0.24 EPA/target to tight ends (2nd).

· Our model favors the 49ers by 4.1points, with a predicted total of 46.1 points, and the matchups are favorable to the Niners’ offense.

San Francisco Team Total Over (23.5 -125) is a Strong Opinion at -140 odds or better (or Over 24 to -125).