Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **ARIZONA (+13.5) over San Francisco

Lean – Over (47.5/48)

· This will be the fourth consecutive game we’ve faded the 49ers, but this wager is more about the spot and Arizona’s offense being underrated than it is about San Francisco’s offense.

· The market has the Cardinals offense about 2 points worse than average, but they rank 17th in EPA/play and 18th in success rate since week 10 with Kyler Murray back after missing the first half of the season. I think it’s reasonable to have Arizona’s offense in the Saints/Commanders tier around the league average with Murray knocking off the rust and more secure in the new offense.

· Murray will go against a 49ers defense possibly without 5 starters. All-Pro S Talanoa Hufanga has been out with a torn ACL and the secondary took another hit with a groin injury for CB Charvarius Ward, who leads the NFL with 20 passes defended.

· San Francisco’s pass rush could be without two interior defenders, Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave, who have combined for 85 pressures this season.

· The 49ers might also be without linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who is dealing with hip and ankle injuries. San Francisco is competing for home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Kyle Shanahan might be compelled to sit the 49ers injured players as a double-digit favorite with the Ravens on deck next week.

· Shanahan will be content to go with a run-heavy approach as Arizona’s defense is allowing a 42.5% rush success rate (26th). San Francisco will not be concerned with running up the score as they’ll want to leave this game healthy rather than keeping their starters in longer than needed.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 8.4 points, with a predicted total of 50.3 points, and the Niners apply to a 49-122-3 ATS road letdown situation that also applied to them when they lost straight up as a favorite in Cleveland earlier this season.

Arizona is a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 or more and 1-Star down to +10.5.