Game Analysis
Quarterbacks are the franchise faces of NFL teams. They can carry a team to victory or defeat with the Chargers and Texans unquestionably at the opposite ends of the QB satisfaction spectrum. The Chargers are equipped with gunslinger Philip Rivers, who is having another tremendous season, in-line with his illustrious 13-year career. San Diego is the 7th ranked passing team, throwing for 7.1 NYPP and 48.6% success rate. Brock Osweiler’s career has just begun, however, it will be a surprise to everyone if he lasts 13 more weeks, as he has the Texans ranked dead-last in NYPP with a dreadful 5.0 NYPP and 42.8% success rate. Despite the Texans being 6-4 and Chargers 4-6, San Diego is favored on the road. It is easy to look at the quarterback play of the Texans and laugh. However, this ball club has been in every game except for against elite units/team (NE, DEN, MIN). The Texans have the 10th ranked defensive unit in the league and can make it difficult for even franchise quarterbacks. The Texans have been able to have a winning record despite the -6 turnover differential, so as bad as the offense has been, the defense has been able to carry the team for much of the season. On the other side of the ball, while the San Diego defense has improved, they are still the 20th ranked defense that has allowed 28 points per game. The advanced stats model sees value on the team from Texas, so Texans (+1.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to OVER (46).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.6
41.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
46.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.8%
39.1%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
23.3
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
25.2%
25.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.9%
46.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.7%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
67.1
65.2
-
Early Down Succ
46.1%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
44.6%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.1%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.0
24.2
-
Run Ratio
40.9%
35.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.8
29.9
-
Game Control
4.3
-4.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.2
34.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.8%
43.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
5.4%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
19.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.9%
41.0%
-
NYPP
5.0
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
27.7
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
22.1%
21.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.2%
34.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
67.5
61.8
-
Early Down Succ
45.8%
46.7%
-
Succ Rate
43.3%
43.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.3%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.6
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
44.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.0
29.5
-
Game Control
-1.7
1.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@KC |
27 – 33 L |
11.5 |
56.8% /
52.9% |
2.7% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
57.6% /
57.9% |
15.2% /
21.1% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
70 /
70 |
62.3% /
57.4% |
57.1% /
54.3% |
38.8% /
44.3% |
5.6 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
27.1% |
30.4 /
28.4 |
| 2 |
JAC |
38 – 14 W |
21.2 |
46.4% /
42.3% |
10.7% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
44.4% /
63.6% |
19.4% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
6.3 |
64 /
63 |
45.8% /
52.0% |
45.3% /
46.0% |
60.2% /
42.8% |
5.6 /
6.2 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
17.5% |
40.3 /
22.0 |
| 3 |
@IND |
22 – 26 L |
-1.8 |
56.1% /
53.8% |
4.9% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.8 /
8.1 |
35.3% /
38.5% |
17.6% /
34.6% |
2.2 /
3.6 |
58 /
65 |
53.2% /
50.9% |
50.0% /
47.7% |
40.2% /
36.8% |
6.1 /
6.3 |
5.2% /
1.5% |
29.3% /
40.0% |
28.6 /
28.1 |
| 4 |
NO |
34 – 35 L |
2.3 |
43.5% /
50.0% |
6.5% /
5.3% |
2.3% /
5.6% |
6.7 /
5.0 |
33.3% /
36.8% |
38.1% /
10.5% |
1.8 /
2.3 |
67 /
76 |
39.6% /
42.0% |
40.3% /
43.4% |
38.7% /
19.0% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
50.0% |
31.4 /
36.9 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
31 – 34 L |
0.1 |
56.3% /
41.9% |
6.3% /
7.0% |
6.7% /
2.5% |
11.0 /
7.0 |
42.1% /
56.0% |
31.6% /
24.0% |
3.8 /
3.6 |
51 /
68 |
54.8% /
49.1% |
51.0% /
47.1% |
62.4% /
44.0% |
8.3 /
5.7 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
36.8% |
29.3 /
37.5 |
| 6 |
DEN |
21 – 13 W |
10.3 |
41.9% /
38.5% |
6.5% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
4.2 |
20.7% /
43.8% |
31.0% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
5.3 |
60 /
68 |
32.6% /
40.4% |
31.7% /
39.7% |
35.8% /
21.1% |
4.4 /
4.5 |
3.3% /
2.9% |
48.3% /
23.5% |
36.4 /
31.1 |
| 7 |
@ATL |
33 – 30 W |
-4.5 |
53.1% /
44.7% |
8.2% /
10.5% |
2.2% /
2.9% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
46.4% /
46.2% |
25.0% /
30.8% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
77 /
64 |
50.9% /
46.0% |
50.6% /
45.3% |
38.6% /
44.6% |
5.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
40.6% |
25.8 /
33.2 |
| 8 |
@DEN |
19 – 27 L |
-3.6 |
31.4% /
38.5% |
7.8% /
2.6% |
6.4% /
2.6% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
44.4% |
15.4% /
33.3% |
4.7 /
2.2 |
77 /
66 |
37.9% /
47.8% |
37.7% /
40.9% |
48.8% /
49.4% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
33.8% /
40.9% |
27.4 /
32.4 |
| 9 |
TEN |
43 – 35 W |
7.5 |
55.9% /
50.0% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
7.9 /
7.5 |
38.1% /
47.4% |
16.7% /
26.3% |
5.0 /
4.2 |
76 /
61 |
50.8% /
49.0% |
46.1% /
49.2% |
33.2% /
47.1% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
55.3% /
31.1% |
30.2 /
24.0 |
| 10 |
MIA |
24 – 31 L |
0.3 |
44.7% /
56.0% |
6.4% /
4.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
9.2 |
20.8% /
26.9% |
41.7% /
26.9% |
2.9 /
4.1 |
71 /
51 |
33.3% /
43.6% |
36.6% /
41.2% |
44.1% /
58.9% |
5.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
33.8% /
51.0% |
28.8 /
25.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
23 – 14 W |
-0.5 |
45.9% /
38.2% |
5.4% /
14.7% |
2.9% /
3.4% |
5.8 /
5.4 |
37.8% /
60.0% |
16.2% /
30.0% |
3.5 /
3.7 |
74 /
54 |
38.0% /
53.8% |
41.9% /
46.3% |
41.3% /
42.6% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
37.0% |
33.0 /
25.1 |
| 2 |
KC |
19 – 12 W |
6.8 |
40.0% /
34.1% |
5.7% /
9.8% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.2 |
32.4% /
36.8% |
18.9% /
31.6% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
72 /
60 |
41.2% /
39.1% |
36.1% /
35.0% |
38.2% /
37.1% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
5.0% |
51.4% /
31.7% |
35.9 /
29.5 |
| 3 |
@NE |
0 – 27 L |
-13.1 |
48.8% /
40.0% |
4.7% /
5.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
40.7% /
48.8% |
22.2% /
22.0% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
70 /
61 |
50.0% /
54.5% |
45.7% /
45.9% |
13.4% /
51.1% |
4.1 /
4.7 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
67.2% |
15.6 /
40.5 |
| 4 |
TEN |
27 – 20 W |
6.1 |
50.0% /
36.7% |
2.6% /
3.3% |
5.4% /
3.4% |
6.4 /
6.5 |
54.2% /
56.3% |
25.0% /
9.4% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
62 /
62 |
55.1% /
47.8% |
51.6% /
46.8% |
45.1% /
50.0% |
5.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
51.6% |
28.0 /
30.7 |
| 5 |
@MIN |
13 – 31 L |
-17.1 |
30.4% /
56.3% |
8.7% /
6.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
3.4 /
8.0 |
50.0% /
33.3% |
28.6% /
23.1% |
4.2 /
2.5 |
60 /
71 |
43.5% /
44.4% |
35.0% /
43.7% |
33.6% /
37.7% |
3.6 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.3% /
54.9% |
28.3 /
28.6 |
| 6 |
IND |
26 – 23 W |
-8.0 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
2.5% /
8.6% |
2.6% /
3.1% |
6.4 /
6.6 |
48.3% /
46.9% |
27.6% /
18.8% |
5.5 /
5.0 |
69 /
67 |
51.8% /
53.8% |
49.3% /
49.3% |
49.2% /
49.5% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.0% /
47.8% |
22.4 /
32.5 |
| 7 |
@DEN |
9 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
35.7% /
44.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
6.3 |
60.0% /
47.2% |
16.0% /
5.6% |
5.6 /
5.3 |
67 /
61 |
48.9% /
52.1% |
44.8% /
45.9% |
19.2% /
43.7% |
4.0 /
5.7 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
59.0% |
25.3 /
33.2 |
| 8 |
DET |
20 – 13 W |
7.3 |
37.5% /
40.5% |
9.4% /
2.4% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
32.4% /
28.6% |
11.8% /
21.4% |
3.2 /
4.1 |
66 /
56 |
35.6% /
40.9% |
34.8% /
37.5% |
31.3% /
28.7% |
4.1 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.5% /
25.0% |
38.4 /
20.9 |
| 10 |
@JAC |
24 – 21 W |
6.0 |
35.7% /
43.1% |
3.6% /
3.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
3.3 /
4.8 |
48.5% /
36.4% |
33.3% /
31.8% |
5.5 /
3.6 |
61 /
73 |
42.2% /
36.4% |
42.6% /
41.1% |
41.0% /
7.3% |
4.5 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
54.1% /
30.1% |
33.6 /
24.4 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
20 – 27 L |
0.3 |
53.7% /
51.6% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
3.2% |
5.6 /
9.5 |
48.5% /
22.7% |
21.2% /
22.7% |
3.8 /
1.5 |
74 /
53 |
51.8% /
44.4% |
51.4% /
39.6% |
30.2% /
54.4% |
4.8 /
6.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
41.5% |
29.3 /
30.2 |
San Diego Chargers
@ 
Houston Texans