Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – TAMPA BAY (+1.5) over Pittsburgh (no opinion at current line of -1)

Ryan Fitzpatrick has turned in two of the league’s most unexpected performances this season, averaging 12.9 yards per pass play against two playoff teams from a year ago. The Steelers have a 10.5% sack rate this season (4th) after ranking 1st in the category last year and they will look to collapse the pocket. However, it’s worth noting that Fitzpatrick has been tremendous under pressure so far this season, completing 10 of 14 passes for 199 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions when the heat is on. When he does have time, Fitzpatrick will be looking for DeSean Jackson downfield. Jackson has been targeted 9 times this season and each of those passes have been completed for a total of 275 yards, including 232 receiving yards on deep passes, which is nearly double the second-best receiver in the league in that category. There was a chance Cameron Sutton, who’s allowed 3.47 yards per cover snap filling in for Joe Haden, would’ve been tasked with slowing Jackson down, but now reports seem to indicate Haden will be back on Monday night (check his status).

Less likely to play is Steelers All-Pro guard David DeCastro, who is suffering from a fractured hand. Ben Roethlisberger has managed to throw for 7.1 yards per pass play without DeCastro and selfish RB Le’Veon Bell because of his excellent wide receivers. Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster have combined for 400 receiving yards in the first two weeks and they will go up against a Buccaneers team without their top two cornerbacks if Brent Grimes (questionable) is unable to play. However, it is worth noting that Ryan Smith has filled in competently for Grimes, surrendering just 0.39 yards per cover snap (14th) and should be a solid corner to play opposite Grimes when he does return (CB Vernon Hargreaves is out for the season).

Our model makes this line Tampa Bay by 0.5 without Grimes and the Buccaneers by 1.1 points if he is able to suit up. Of course, that assumes that Fitzpatrick returns to mortal status. I leaned with Tampa Bay when they were a dog but I have no opinion now that the Bucs are favored.

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Buccaneers

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 53.0 37.5
Succ Pass Plays 45.4% 45.4%
Sack Rate 5.3% 9.3%
Int Rate 3.7% 1.3%
Deep Pass Rate 19.8% 29.7%
Big Pass Yards 43.3% 65.5%
NYPP 7.1 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 24.5 32.5
RB YPR 3.2 3.9
Stuff Rate 21.3% 24.5%
Succ Rush Plays 41.5% 42.0%
Big Rush Yards 23.8% 54.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.7

Game

All Snaps 77.5 70.0
Early Down Succ 46.9% 47.3%
Succ Rate 45.3% 43.5%
Big Yards Rate 41.8% 60.3%
Yards Per Play 6.1 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.9% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.9 27.5
Run Ratio 31.0% 46.7%
Starting Field Pos 22.9 32.4
Game Control -1.9 1.9

Points 29.0 31.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	21 – 21 T	6.0	40.0% / 21.7%	8.9% / 15.2%	7.3% / 2.6%	7.0 / 3.3	44.4% / 39.5%	19.4% / 34.2%	4.4 / 4.7	81 / 84	42.2% / 30.8%	42.0% / 29.8%	48.4% / 64.5%	5.8 / 3.9	3.7% / 0.0%	44.4% / 45.2%	23.9 / 34.4
2	KC	37 – 42 L	-9.7	50.8% / 69.0%	1.6% / 3.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.2 / 11.1	38.5% / 44.4%	23.1% / 14.8%	2.5 / 4.8	74 / 56	51.7% / 63.8%	48.6% / 57.1%	35.2% / 56.1%	6.4 / 8.1	0.0% / 1.8%	17.6% / 48.2%	21.8 / 30.3

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	48 – 40 W	7.4	64.3% / 73.9%	0.0% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	14.9 / 9.4	43.2% / 69.2%	18.9% / 23.1%	3.1 / 3.3	65 / 59	56.5% / 77.6%	52.3% / 72.9%	62.7% / 36.4%	8.2 / 8.1	0.0% / 3.4%	56.9% / 22.0%	26.4 / 25.9
2	PHI	27 – 21 W	11.1	60.0% / 42.0%	5.7% / 6.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	11.2 / 6.4	25.0% / 54.2%	41.7% / 20.8%	1.8 / 3.8	59 / 74	48.9% / 48.1%	45.8% / 45.9%	45.3% / 36.2%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 2.7%	40.7% / 32.4%	27.2 / 25.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mon, Sep 24

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis