Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (33.5) – Pittsburgh at CLEVELAND

Lean – Pittsburgh (+1)

· The Browns beat the Ravens last week when their win probability was down to 3% in the fourth quarter, but that win may end up being the high mark of the season as Cleveland announced on Wednesday morning that quarterback Deshaun Watson will miss the rest of 2023 after suffering a shoulder injury.

· The Browns will start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is averaging just 2.0 yppp.

· To be fair to Thompson-Robinson, his first start of the season came without much warning as Watson was a surprise scratch before that game, but the rookie quarterback will have a different type of adversity on Sunday as Cleveland’s offensive line could be without its top 3 tackles and Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller.

· TJ Watt has 10.5 sacks (3rd) and he will wreak havoc across from Browns fourth-string tackle James Hudson, who surrendered 5 pressures in week 10 (3rd-most).

· Cleveland’s fifth tackle Geron Christian will struggle against Steelers edge defender Alex Highsmith, who ranks 16th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Pittsburgh’s offensive line is also facing a major challenge. Steelers LT Dan Moore ranks 50th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 52 qualifying tackles and he will line up across from edge rusher Myles Garrett, who leads the NFL with 11.0 sacks.

· On the other side, it’ll be rookie RT Broderick Jones making his fourth career start versus Browns edge defender Za’Darius Smith, who ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Kenny Pickett may attempt to counter the collapsing pockets by using screens as RB Jaylen Warren is averaging 1.70 yards per route run (3rd). However, Cleveland’s defense is conceding just a 34% pass success rate to running backs (3rd).

· Warren led the NFL with 5 carries of at least 10 yards last week but he will be shut down on the ground as well because the Browns defense is conceding a 33.7% rush success rate (4th).

· Our model makes Cleveland a 0.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 29.9 points and the Steelers tend to play lower scoring games than expected on the road, as head coach Mike Tomlin tends to be even more conservative away from home. The Steelers are 47-15-2 Under in road games when the total is 49 points or less since early 2015, including 3-0 Under this season.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 33 points or more.