Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – Cincinnati Team Total Under (16.5 -105)

Pittsburgh (-2.5/-2) vs CINCINNATI

· Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending right wrist injury in the Bengals’ loss to the Ravens last week. Jake Browning will take over as the starter, but he is averaging only 2.7 yppp and he’s only earned 18 dropbacks in the NFL in the last 5 seasons since he graduated from Washington. Browning should be better with a week of work with the first team offense but he’s still a huge downgrade from Burrow.

· Cincinnati’s coaches plan to use the exact same offense with the exact same play-calling menu as they would with Burrow under center. I do not expect it to work considering the game will be in wet conditions and Burrow is one of the best in the league at diagnosing defenses at the line of scrimmage. Burrow has a 2.1% PFF turnover-worthy throw rate (3rd-lowest) because he finds the open man and doesn’t force the ball into tight windows. It’s doubtful that Browning will have those same instincts.

· Bengals WR Tee Higgins is out and WR Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 0.44 EPA/target (16th) but he will be limited by CB Joey Porter, who is conceding 0.66 yards per cover snap (11th).

· Steelers Pro Bowl interior defender Cameron Heyward will wreak havoc across from LG Cordell Volson, who ranks 4th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Mike Tomlin fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada and there is plenty of room for improvement for Pittsburgh’s offense. Kenny Pickett has the rare combination of not throwing over the middle while also not having open receivers with Canada and new play-caller Mike Sullivan could make some tweaks to the scheme to manufacture offense for the Steelers.

· Only 25% of Pickett’s throws have been between the numbers beyond the line of scrimmage while the NFL average is 39%.

· Pickett also has thrown 32% of his passes into tight coverage (3rd-most).

· Furthermore, Sullivan should get Pittsburgh RB Jaylen Warren more involved as he’s averaging a league-high 6.2 yards per run and Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a 43.3% rush success rate (28th).

· Steelers LT Dan Moore ranks last in pass blocking efficiency out of 49 qualifying tackles, and he will struggle across from edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, whose 52 pressures rank 6th.

· This is an incredibly high-leverage game for Pittsburgh’s playoff chances as the odds go from about 75% with a win to 40% with a loss according to our numbers.

· Our model favors the Steelers by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 31.9 points and the matchups also favor the under. I think the best play is Cincinnati’s team total under because there is a good chance that Pittsburgh outplays the model projection without incompetent OC Canada creating the game plan and calling plays.

The Cincinnati Team Total Under (16.5 -105) is a 1-Star Best Bet at 16.5 -105 or better or Under 17 at -125 or better.