Game Analysis

Lean – BUFFALO (-10) over Pittsburgh

Strong Opinion – Stefon Diggs (Buff) Over 5.5 Receptions (even) at -110 or better

· This game, now being played on Monday, has much better scoring conditions than it would have had on Sunday.

· Pittsburgh’s defense has a 29.8% Cover 3 rate (2nd-highest) and this coverage is at the mercy of curl routes. Bills WR Stefon Diggs has 41.9 expected points added (16th) and his most popular route is a curl at 21.4%.

· Diggs got less than 66% of snaps on offense for three consecutive games from week 15 to 17 after not doing so prior in the season but Diggs’ snap rate was up to 88% last week and I expect Allen to highlight Diggs versus the Steelers defense with Buffalo starting WR Gabe Davis likely out.

· Davis averaged 0.39 EPA/target this year (20th) but sprained his posterior cruciate ligament last week and backup WR Khalil Shakir had 105 yards against the Dolphins.

· Josh Allen threw for 185 yards against the blitz in week 18 (2nd-most) and he is likely to see more blitz looks in this game. Pittsburgh’s defense has a 38.4% blitz rate (6th-highest) and they might send extra pass rushers more often to compensate for the loss of edge rusher TJ Watt, who led the NFL with 19.0 sacks but is sidelined with an MCL sprain.

· The Bills’ offensive line is well-equipped to communicate and pick up the Steelers’ blitzes as the starters have played for 95.1% of snaps this season. Just 9 offenses had the same line combination on the field for 50% of their snap in 2023.

· Buffalo LT Dion Dawkins ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge defender Alex Highsmith, who has 69 pressures (13th).

· Pittsburgh interior defender Cameron Heyward hasn’t looked right after undergoing groin surgery in September. Heyward is averaging just 1.7 pressures per game since coming back in week 9 compared to last season’s 3.4 pressures per game.

· The Bills’ offensive line conceded a league-low 12 sacks this year and Allen will be kept clean versus the Steelers.

· Buffalo’s offense is averaging 0.01 EPA/rush (3rd) and they’re more dangerous with Allen running more often. Allen had 15 carries last game. Pittsburgh’s defense is conceding a 35.4% rush success rate (5th) and they will try to limit the Bills ground game.

· Kenny Pickett averaged 5.5 yppp this season, Mitchell Trubisky averaged 5.2 yppp, and it’s not a surprise Mike Tomlin is sticking with Mason Rudolph, who is averaging 8.5 yppp.

· However, Rudolph has gone against a cupcake set of opposing defenses. The Seahawks allowed a 47.9% dropback success rate this year (27th), the Bengals surrendered a 48.1% dropback success rate (29th), and the Ravens had their backups on the field in week 18.

· Pittsburgh’s yards per attempt against zone coverage was just 79% of their yards per attempt versus man (31st) and Buffalo’s defense will limit Rudolph as the Bills have an 83% zone coverage rate (6th-highest).

· Buffalo cornerback Rasul Douglas is conceding 0.90 yards per cover snap (15th) and he will contain WR George Pickens, whose 11 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards rank 12th. Douglas left last week’s game nursing his knee, but he is confident he will be on the field for this game.

· Steelers WR Diontae Johnson will struggle across from CB Christian Benford, who is allowing 0.91 yards per cover snap (16th).

· The Bills got back DT DaQuan Jones in week 17. Jones ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency in the 6 weeks this season he had more than 5 snaps and he is a force along with interior defender Ed Oliver, who has 65 pressures (4th). Jones and Oliver will wreak havoc against Pittsburgh C Mason Cole, who ranks 5th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· There will be further concerns for Rudolph’s protection as Steelers LT Dan Moore is surrendering a league-high 10.8% pressure rate and he will line up across from edge defender Greg Rousseau, who ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Pittsburgh will be hoping heavy wind gusts will make the downfield passing game untenable for both offenses because the Steelers’ running backs have a favorable matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 24th in EPA/rush allowed and is surrendering a 52% pass success rate to running backs (31st).

· However, the Bills should take this game with ease if the winds hold below 30mph. Pittsburgh is a playoff fraud as they are only the 5th team in history to win 10 games with a point differential of -20 or worse. Playoff road teams that have been outscored by a total of 12 points or more for the season are just 7-23 ATS since 1980 (1-11 ATS for double-digit underdogs) – the last one being two years ago when Pittsburgh lost 21-42 as a 12.5-point underdog in Kansas City.

· Furthermore, Buffalo will go against the Steelers without their most valuable player. TJ Watt is worth 2.2 points according to our metrics.

· Our model favors the Bills by 10.0 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points. While the model sees value on the over, I have no interest in playing a Steelers game over – especially on the road. Pittsburgh is 54-22-2 Under in all road games since 2015 (by an average of 3.2 points), including 6-2 Under this season.

· While the model suggests this line is fair, the matchups favor Buffalo and playoff underdogs of 10 points or more are just 5-21-1 ATS since 1991 for teams with a win percentage of less than 0.667.