Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Philadelphia (-3 Even) over TAMPA BAY

· The Eagles were favored by 5 with a total of 46 at Tampa Bay way back in week 3. Philadelphia’s offense had 6.1 yppl compared to Tampa Bay’s 4.0 yppl in a 25-11 win.

· A ton has changed since then, including both quarterbacks picking up some knocks. Jalen Hurts middle finger popped out last week. Hurts didn’t do much throwing on Thursday, but he was a full participant on Friday and able to throw the ball with good velocity.

· Baker Mayfield suffered a painful injury to his ribs at the end of the week 17 game against the Saints and then hurt his ankle while being sacked last week. Mayfield averaged only 3.3 yppp against the Panthers with the ribs and ankle clearly bothering him.

· The Eagles’ defense runs the 8th-highest man coverage rate in the NFL and will pose problems for Mayfield as the Buccaneers’ yards per attempt against man was only 73% of their yards per attempt versus zone coverage (30th).

· Philadelphia’s pass defense has struggled the last 4 games without starting cornerback Darius Slay, but he will suit up for his first game since week 14 and will take some snaps across from WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (7th).

· Tampa Bay LT Tristan Wirfs ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency and RT Luke Goedeke is conceding just a 6.2% pressure rate. The pair will limit Philadelphia’s edge rushers Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick, who combined for 134 pressures this season.

· However, Mayfield will not be kept entirely clean as Buccaneers’ rookie RG Cody Mauch and LG Aaron Stinnie ranked 4th-worst and 7th-worst respectively in pass blocking efficiency. Eagles DT Fletcher Cox had 43 pressures in the 15 weeks he was on the field (20th) and interior defender Jalen Carter ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Mayfield’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is only 87% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz (28th) and he will struggle against Philadelphia’s front four with a 76.7% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest).

· The Eagles allow -0.13 EPA/target to running backs (8th) and will contain the screen game to Rachaad White, whose 0.35 EPA/target leads running backs.

· Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing -0.17 EPA/rush (5th) and they can limit Philadelphia’s ground game with a 44.5% rush success rate (4th).

· The Buccaneers’ defense has a 49.1% blitz rate (3rd-highest) and a league-high 30.4% Cover 3 rate. Hurts can throw go routes to Eagles WR DeVonta Smith, who will be back this week and is one of only 21 receivers with 10 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards.

· Tampa Bay’s defense allowed 0.24 EPA/play in Cover 3 (25th). Buccaneers’ CB Carlton Davis is surrendering a league-high 1.90 yards per cover snap and will struggle when lined up across from Smith.

· Hurts will be kept clean to look downfield with Philadelphia All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson shutting down edge defender Shaquil Barrett, who led Tampa Bay’s defense with 49 pressures.

· Eagles TE Dallas Goedert has a 60% success rate (2nd) and a favorable matchup versus a Buccaneers defense surrendering 0.30 EPA/target to tight ends (26th).

AJ Brown is out but Hurts can throw go routes to Eagles WR DeVonta Smith, who will be back this week and is one of 21 receivers with 10 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards.

· Philadelphia is battle-tested after going against the 4th-toughest schedule this season about a point and a half better than average by our metrics. Meanwhile, four of Tampa Bay’s nine wins were in the soft NFC South. The Buccaneers, Saints, Falcons, and Panthers went 16-28 ATS outside the division this year.

· The Eagles have been slumping but teams that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are historically good bets and teams that enter the playoffs on a losing streak of 2 games or more and a spread losing streak of 3 games or more are 10-2 ATS over the years. So, Philly’s recent form is not a negative.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 3.9 points with a predicted total of 43.1 points, and the matchups favor Philly.

Strong Opinion on Philadelphia at -3 -105 odds or better.