Game Analysis

Note: Seattle was given out as a Strong Opinion when Geno Smith was upgraded to probable earlier tonight. He is now apparently not going to start and it will be Drew Lock. The line has moved to +5 and +5.5 and there is still value on the Seahawks at that number with Lock at QB.

Strong Opinion – SEATTLE (+3.5 -105) over Philadelphia

· Geno Smith will be back under center for Seattle’s offense on Monday night in a favorable matchup. The Seahawks are averaging 30% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush this season compared to the blitz (2nd-largest gap) and the Eagles have a 75.9% standard pass rush rate (8th-highest).

· Philadelphia’s defense had 7 reliable pass rushers in the Super Bowl run last season, but they lost interior defender Javon Hargrave and edge defender Robert Quinn, who combined for 92 pressures in 2022. The Eagles do not have as much pass rushing depth this year and they have a league-low 5.1% sack rate on 3rd down.

· Philadelphia’s offense also hasn’t been up to the standard of last season’s squad as Jalen Hurts is averaging 0.5 yppp and 0.9 yards per carry fewer than he did last year.

· The Seahawks are allowing 0.30 EPA/target to tight ends (27th) and they will struggle against TE Dallas Goedert, who has a 61% success rate (6th).

· Eagles WR DeVonta Smith has 10 deep receptions this season (8th) but he will be contained downfield by CB Tariq Woolen, who is conceding 0.81 yards per cover snap (13th).

· Seattle’s defense ranks 30th in EPA/rush allowed and they will yield yards on the ground as Philadelphia’s offense has a 43.2% rush success rate (6th).

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 3.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, and Seattle applies to a 50-21 ATS Monday night home underdog situation. The Seahawks are also now 22-5-1 ATS after consecutive losses under coach Pete Carroll, including 6-0 ATS after 3 or more losses.

Seattle is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 points -115 or better.