Philadelphia Eagles @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Oct 4
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 277
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -7.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Lean – Philadelphia (+7.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Lean – Over (45)

Nick Mullens averaged 7.4 yards per pass play during his 8 games in 2018, which was a bit better than Jimmy Garoppolo’s 7.3 yppp in 2019, and Mullens has continued to show he’s not much of a downgrade by averaging 7.0 yppp in a game and a half so far in 2020. This week, Mullens will also benefit from getting George Kittle, the best tight end in the NFL, back on San Francisco’s offense. Rookie WR Brandon Aiyuk has been an excellent fill-in for the injured Deebo Samuel (back in limited capacity on Sunday), as he caught five passes for 70 yards to go with 31 yards on three carries and a TD last week. However, Mullens could be in trouble on Sunday night as the middle of his offensive line is vulnerable. Guards Daniel Brunskill and Laken Tomlinson both rank among the worst in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency while Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox have combined for 21 pressures on the interior for the Eagles.

Carson Wentz is having the worst stretch of his career to start 2020, with 12 turnover-worthy plays according to PFF, which is over twice as many as any other quarterback in the NFL. Wentz has been misfiring badly so far this season, as 62% of his passes with 10+ air yards have been graded as completely uncatchable, which is over 12 percentage points worse than anyone else. Wentz has been poor but another part of Philadelphia’s offensive struggles has been the lack of any talented receivers with Alshon Jeffrey, Desean Jackson, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert all injured. Wentz is trying to make plays in other ways and last week he had 9 runs for 65 yards, including a scramble touchdown to force overtime. However, scrambling can easily be taken away with no threats on the outside and Wentz could struggle again this week with only TE Zach Ertz and RB Miles Sanders as reasonable options to throw to. For all their troubles dealing with CB injuries, the 49ers are only allowing only 3.1 yards per target to opposing TEs and 3.1 yards per target to opposing RBs. Linebacker Fred Warner is a huge reason for San Francisco’s success defending the middle of the field and screens as he is surrendering just 0.47 yards per cover snap (2nd).

West coast teams are now 36-14 straight up and 31-18-1 ATS against east coast teams on Sunday/Monday night football since 1989 due to a body clock advantage particularly in the second half. However, Philadelphia applies to a 148-68-4 ATS contrary situation and our model favors the 49ers by just 5.6 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points. I’ll lean Philly plus the points and Over.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • 49ers


  • Pass Plays 47.7 38.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 38.8% 50.4%
  • Sack Rate 7.3% 9.3%
  • Int Rate 4.6% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 21.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.3% 31.5%
  • NYPP 4.6 6.3


  • Rush Plays 26.3 31.0
  • RB YPR 4.1 3.1
  • Stuff Rate 13.4% 25.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.6% 44.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.8% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.3


  • All Snaps 74.0 69.0
  • Early Down Succ 45.0% 51.6%
  • Succ Rate 44.9% 47.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.2% 34.5%
  • Yards Per Play 4.5 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.2 27.0
  • Run Ratio 35.0% 45.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.1 33.9
  • Game Control -1.4 1.4
  • Points 19.7 29.0
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