Game Analysis

Philadelphia (-6.5) vs NY JETS

Note: Since posting the analysis on Thursday there have been some additional injury updates. Philly will be without Jalen Carter and Darius Slay on defense and the Jets are still without CB D.J. Reed and now will be without star CB Sauce Gardner. Updated prediction below.

· The Jets defense has a 41.4% pressure rate (3rd) but New York’s pass rush will be kept at bay on Sunday. Philadelphia’s offensive line did not miss a beat with Sua Opeta stepping in for RG Cam Jurgens last week. The Eagles did not concede a sack or quarterback hit against the Rams.

· Philadelphia’s wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will be limited in this game as cornerback Sauce Gardner is allowing just 0.77 yards per cover snap (9th) and cornerback DJ Reed is conceding 0.80 yards per cover snap (11th).

· The Jets are surrendering a 64% success rate to tight ends (26th) and Jalen Hurts will look for TE Dallas Goedert, who is gaining 0.36 EPA/target (7th).

· New York’s defense ranks 5th in EPA/rush and they should contain the Eagles ground game with a 48.8% rush success rate (4th).

· Jets WR Garrett Wilson has had difficult matchups in consecutive weeks. Wilson averaged just 4.3 yards per target against the Chiefs mainly due to shadow coverage by CB L’Jarius Sneed. Wilson was shadowed by Pat Surtain last week and was held to an average target separation of only 1.6 yards. It doesn’t get better for Wilson in this game lined up across from CB James Bradberry, who is conceding 0.73 yards per cover snap (6th).

· Furthermore, the Eagles are getting stronger in the secondary. Starting nickelback Avonte Maddox is out for the season and backup Mario Goodrich wasn’t cutting it surrendering 2.76 yards per slot cover snap, so they signed Bradley Roby, who allowed -4 yards on 5 targets in his first game.

· Jets RT Alijah Vera-Tucker is out, and he is worth a half point over backup Max Mitchell, who surrendered 3 sacks in 5 starts last season.

· Breece Hall is up to 6.3 yards per rush for his career after 127 yards on 10 carries in Denver last week, but he will be contained this week as Philadelphia’s rush defense is allowing a 36.1% success rate (10th).

· Hall will also be limited as a receiver because the Eagles’ defense is conceding a 31% success rate to running backs (5th).

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 7.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.8.