Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY GIANTS (+4) over Philadelphia

The Eagles will be NFC East Champions with a win in this game but it certainly isn’t a guarantee with all of their injuries. Tight end Zach Ertz and right tackle Lane Johnson are questionable while cornerback Ronald Darby joins DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery on the injured reserve list. Philadelphia’s receiving core without Ertz, Jackson, and Jeffrey is a cluster injury worth about 3 points according to our metrics as it will be challenging for Carson Wentz to move the ball through the air with second tight end Dallas Goedert as the top option. Edge defender Markus Golden ranks 18th in pass rushing efficiency and recorded 11 pressures against the Eagles the game Lane Johnson was injured 3 weeks ago. Left guard Isaac Seumalo’s 41 pressures conceded are a league-high and he will not be able to contain interior defender Leonard Williams, who is ranked 14th in pass rushing efficiency.

Daniel Jones is coming off the best game of his career with 5 touchdowns and more than 8 yards per pass play last week against the Redskins. Fletcher Cox is one of the 9 interior defenders with at least 50 pressures this season but the Pro Bowler will be neutralized by solid right guard Kevin Zeitler, who ranks 12th in pass blocking efficiency and limited interior defender Matt Ioannidis to 2 pressures in week 16. I expect Jones to attack the Eagles poor secondary with time in the pocket like he did against Washington’s defense last week.

Philadelphia’s injuries could finally catch up to them and I think there’s a reasonable chance they lose this game outright if Ertz and Johnson are unable to suit up. Our model favors the Eagles by 4.4 points with a predicted total of 43.1 and the match-ups side with the Giants, particularly in the trenches. The situation also favors the Giants, as the Eagles apply to a 96-172-5 ATS week 17 situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Giants

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.6 37.5
Succ Pass Plays 48.8% 42.7%
Sack Rate 5.9% 7.3%
Int Rate 1.3% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 22.3%
Big Pass Yards 36.6% 43.0%
NYPP 5.9 6.4

Rush

Rush Plays 28.2 22.2
RB YPR 4.2 3.6
Stuff Rate 18.6% 28.7%
Succ Rush Plays 50.1% 42.2%
Big Rush Yards 36.1% 45.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.8

Game

All Snaps 68.8 59.7
Early Down Succ 50.9% 44.7%
Succ Rate 49.3% 42.3%
Big Yards Rate 37.7% 44.3%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 27.3
Run Ratio 41.3% 37.4%
Starting Field Pos 28.4 29.2
Game Control -1.0 1.0

Points 23.0 22.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	WAS	32 – 27 W	-4.0	55.0% / 47.8%	2.5% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 8.0	45.2% / 30.8%	22.6% / 23.1%	4.0 / 2.2	71 / 59	47.1% / 44.2%	50.7% / 44.1%	42.0% / 40.2%	6.1 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 22.0%	31.4 / 23.5
2	@ATL	20 – 24 L	-4.4	43.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 2.3%	4.2% / 7.0%	4.6 / 7.0	33.3% / 47.1%	19.0% / 23.5%	2.3 / 3.4	72 / 61	35.3% / 53.1%	40.3% / 49.2%	15.0% / 46.6%	4.0 / 6.0	1.4% / 0.0%	29.2% / 27.9%	38.5 / 23.4
3	DET	24 – 27 L	-4.8	43.6% / 40.6%	7.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	46.7% / 35.7%	10.0% / 39.3%	4.2 / 3.1	69 / 60	44.4% / 38.6%	44.9% / 38.3%	54.4% / 43.2%	5.4 / 4.8	2.9% / 0.0%	43.5% / 46.7%	25.6 / 38.9
4	@GB	34 – 27 W	0.2	55.6% / 48.1%	0.0% / 1.9%	0.0% / 1.9%	5.9 / 7.7	69.7% / 55.0%	6.1% / 30.0%	5.3 / 3.9	60 / 74	67.3% / 50.8%	63.3% / 50.0%	31.3% / 39.5%	5.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.4%	55.0% / 27.0%	31.9 / 21.0
5	NYJ	31 – 6 W	16.1	43.3% / 25.0%	3.3% / 27.8%	0.0% / 7.7%	6.0 / 1.7	34.5% / 42.1%	34.5% / 26.3%	2.9 / 3.5	59 / 55	42.9% / 35.0%	39.0% / 30.9%	44.2% / 25.0%	4.5 / 2.3	1.7% / 1.8%	49.2% / 34.5%	35.2 / 27.1
6	@MIN	20 – 38 L	-10.8	53.5% / 63.3%	4.7% / 3.3%	4.9% / 3.4%	6.8 / 10.8	59.1% / 37.1%	13.6% / 34.3%	4.9 / 3.5	65 / 65	62.0% / 54.7%	55.4% / 49.2%	53.0% / 52.3%	6.2 / 6.9	1.5% / 1.5%	33.8% / 53.8%	26.2 / 33.3
7	@DAL	10 – 37 L	-15.2	44.8% / 60.0%	10.3% / 10.0%	3.8% / 3.7%	5.8 / 7.1	42.9% / 44.4%	21.4% / 16.7%	4.1 / 5.3	57 / 66	45.7% / 49.0%	43.9% / 51.5%	47.0% / 39.6%	5.0 / 6.1	5.3% / 0.0%	49.1% / 54.5%	18.8 / 41.7
8	@BUF	31 – 13 W	5.2	48.1% / 31.6%	11.1% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 4.1	48.8% / 50.0%	29.3% / 35.0%	5.3 / 4.9	68 / 58	50.0% / 39.0%	48.5% / 37.9%	57.7% / 44.3%	5.5 / 4.4	1.5% / 1.7%	60.3% / 34.5%	36.4 / 29.4
9	CHI	22 – 14 W	7.7	51.2% / 25.0%	9.3% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 4.3	51.4% / 50.0%	14.3% / 33.3%	4.2 / 3.4	78 / 42	53.4% / 40.6%	51.3% / 35.7%	20.9% / 61.0%	4.8 / 3.9	0.0% / 2.4%	44.9% / 42.9%	26.9 / 28.9
11	NE	10 – 17 L	-0.8	37.8% / 38.8%	11.1% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.6	57.1% / 36.4%	23.8% / 22.7%	3.9 / 3.4	66 / 71	51.0% / 40.7%	43.9% / 38.0%	42.4% / 21.5%	3.9 / 4.2	1.5% / 0.0%	31.8% / 31.0%	17.2 / 31.0
12	SEA	9 – 17 L	-6.8	56.3% / 29.0%	6.3% / 19.4%	4.4% / 4.0%	5.0 / 5.6	52.2% / 42.3%	21.7% / 19.2%	4.6 / 6.7	71 / 57	60.3% / 35.7%	54.9% / 35.1%	22.7% / 70.1%	4.8 / 6.1	4.2% / 1.8%	32.4% / 45.6%	26.0 / 34.7
13	@MIA	31 – 37 L	3.8	47.9% / 55.8%	4.2% / 7.0%	2.2% / 2.5%	6.1 / 8.2	52.6% / 25.0%	0.0% / 50.0%	4.8 / 2.9	67 / 63	49.1% / 44.7%	49.3% / 46.0%	28.0% / 48.9%	5.8 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.4% / 31.7%	35.6 / 24.7
14	NYG	23 – 17 W	-6.7	47.2% / 28.1%	5.7% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.7	46.9% / 45.0%	31.3% / 20.0%	3.7 / 3.7	85 / 52	48.4% / 41.0%	47.1% / 34.6%	35.6% / 60.0%	4.9 / 4.9	1.2% / 0.0%	37.6% / 38.5%	26.9 / 24.6
15	@WAS	31 – 27 W	-1.4	53.3% / 53.6%	4.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 9.3	57.1% / 47.8%	10.7% / 26.1%	5.6 / 4.4	73 / 51	50.9% / 53.7%	54.8% / 51.0%	30.8% / 46.1%	5.7 / 7.1	1.4% / 2.0%	38.4% / 45.1%	21.5 / 29.0
16	DAL	17 – 9 W	6.4	51.2% / 43.5%	2.4% / 4.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.6 / 5.6	53.3% / 43.8%	20.0% / 31.3%	3.9 / 3.4	71 / 62	56.4% / 50.0%	52.1% / 43.5%	41.3% / 26.4%	6.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	42.3% / 25.8%	28.0 / 26.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DAL	17 – 35 L	-11.2	55.1% / 71.9%	2.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 12.7	70.6% / 36.7%	11.8% / 16.7%	8.9 / 3.0	66 / 62	67.3% / 56.0%	59.1% / 54.8%	41.7% / 50.6%	7.1 / 8.0	3.0% / 0.0%	25.8% / 48.4%	21.1 / 23.6
2	BUF	14 – 28 L	-8.9	45.7% / 42.4%	2.2% / 9.1%	4.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 7.2	70.0% / 58.8%	5.0% / 17.6%	6.5 / 4.4	66 / 67	59.6% / 55.8%	53.0% / 50.7%	38.9% / 32.7%	5.6 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	30.3% / 50.7%	28.5 / 24.8
3	@TB	32 – 31 W	-5.4	39.0% / 46.3%	12.2% / 9.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	7.6 / 8.7	31.6% / 53.1%	26.3% / 18.8%	3.8 / 4.5	60 / 73	32.6% / 54.4%	36.7% / 49.3%	60.9% / 56.5%	6.4 / 6.8	3.3% / 0.0%	31.7% / 43.8%	26.3 / 30.8
4	WAS	24 – 3 W	13.4	54.8% / 35.5%	0.0% / 9.7%	6.5% / 14.3%	7.3 / 3.9	48.6% / 23.5%	18.9% / 17.6%	4.4 / 3.2	68 / 48	49.1% / 35.1%	51.5% / 31.3%	48.8% / 41.5%	5.7 / 3.7	2.9% / 0.0%	54.4% / 35.4%	26.8 / 25.9
5	MIN	10 – 28 L	-9.2	33.3% / 60.0%	9.5% / 10.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	3.5 / 9.3	50.0% / 35.3%	20.0% / 29.4%	3.2 / 6.2	62 / 64	37.2% / 47.1%	38.7% / 46.9%	21.8% / 65.7%	3.4 / 7.7	0.0% / 1.6%	32.3% / 53.1%	26.3 / 31.0
6	@NE	14 – 35 L	-6.7	34.4% / 52.3%	3.1% / 6.8%	9.7% / 2.4%	5.0 / 7.1	31.3% / 41.2%	18.8% / 29.4%	3.3 / 3.4	48 / 78	38.9% / 50.8%	33.3% / 47.4%	34.7% / 51.5%	4.4 / 5.5	2.1% / 1.3%	33.3% / 43.6%	26.6 / 33.3
7	ARI	21 – 27 L	-6.5	41.9% / 43.5%	18.6% / 8.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.6 / 3.9	45.5% / 26.3%	22.7% / 21.1%	4.9 / 4.1	65 / 61	46.0% / 28.6%	43.1% / 32.8%	41.8% / 43.7%	4.0 / 4.0	3.1% / 0.0%	33.8% / 62.3%	24.5 / 40.1
8	@DET	26 – 31 L	-7.1	45.5% / 50.0%	6.8% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.6 / 8.8	41.7% / 20.0%	20.8% / 36.0%	3.3 / 2.4	68 / 61	43.4% / 33.3%	44.1% / 37.7%	32.7% / 49.9%	5.4 / 6.1	1.5% / 1.6%	35.3% / 41.0%	27.7 / 26.4
9	DAL	18 – 37 L	-1.1	37.0% / 54.3%	10.9% / 0.0%	2.4% / 2.9%	3.7 / 7.3	59.1% / 70.0%	18.2% / 16.7%	4.5 / 5.7	68 / 65	45.1% / 64.8%	44.1% / 61.5%	41.0% / 38.7%	4.0 / 6.6	2.9% / 1.5%	32.4% / 46.2%	36.3 / 30.7
10	@NYJ	27 – 34 L	-4.1	32.6% / 46.9%	13.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.8	17.6% / 27.6%	64.7% / 31.0%	1.4 / 2.6	63 / 61	20.9% / 39.1%	28.6% / 37.7%	58.4% / 44.9%	4.5 / 4.8	3.2% / 0.0%	27.0% / 47.5%	25.9 / 29.7
12	@CHI	14 – 19 L	-3.2	35.1% / 44.2%	2.7% / 4.7%	0.0% / 4.9%	3.6 / 6.3	38.1% / 30.8%	23.8% / 30.8%	5.2 / 2.5	58 / 69	42.9% / 44.2%	36.2% / 39.1%	43.6% / 49.0%	4.2 / 4.9	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 37.7%	32.9 / 31.7
13	GB	13 – 31 L	-8.4	40.5% / 51.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1% / 0.0%	6.5 / 7.4	55.6% / 57.7%	25.9% / 23.1%	3.5 / 3.0	64 / 59	47.8% / 54.5%	46.9% / 54.2%	42.7% / 44.4%	5.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	42.2% / 44.1%	20.4 / 33.1
14	@PHI	17 – 23 L	6.7	28.1% / 47.2%	6.3% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.7	45.0% / 46.9%	20.0% / 31.3%	3.7 / 3.7	52 / 85	41.0% / 48.4%	34.6% / 47.1%	60.0% / 35.6%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.2%	38.5% / 37.6%	24.6 / 26.9
15	MIA	36 – 20 W	5.5	56.7% / 43.2%	3.3% / 6.8%	10.3% / 0.0%	9.1 / 6.0	51.5% / 44.0%	15.2% / 24.0%	4.2 / 4.9	63 / 69	55.8% / 49.1%	54.0% / 43.5%	60.0% / 51.8%	6.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.4%	52.4% / 36.2%	32.5 / 28.4
16	@WAS	41 – 35 W	7.5	53.5% / 51.2%	2.3% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 6.9	50.0% / 38.5%	19.2% / 23.1%	7.9 / 3.1	69 / 67	50.9% / 43.4%	52.2% / 46.3%	60.7% / 42.1%	8.0 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 38.8%	23.0 / 31.0

Philadelphia Eagles @

New York Giants

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis