Game Analysis

DALLAS (-3.5) vs Philadelphia

· Philadelphia’s 23-point loss to the 49ers last week was the worst in the Jalen Hurts era.

· The Eagles will look to bounce back with the return of TE Dallas Goedert, who is averaging 0.32 EPA/target (5th). Philadelphia will also likely be getting starting LB Zach Cunningham back on the field and they signed former All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard.

· Cunningham and Leonard could improve the Eagles’ coverage in the middle of the field. Philadelphia’s defense is surrendering a 58% success rate to tight ends (25th) and Dallas TE Jake Ferguson is averaging 0.28 EPA/target (6th).

· Cowboys LT Tyron Smith leads all tackles in pass blocking efficiency and LG Tyler Smith ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. The two Smiths will shut down Eagles edge defender Josh Sweat and interior defender Jalen Carter, who have 56 and 39 pressures respectively ranking 9th and 13th at their positions.

· Dallas RT Terence Steele ranks 46th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 52 qualifying tackles and he will struggle versus edge rusher Haason Reddick, who has 53 pressures (12th).

· Philadelphia nickelback Bradley Roby is allowing only 0.57 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will contain CeeDee Lamb on the inside. Lamb is averaging 0.60 EPA/target (4th) and Dak Prescott will need to look elsewhere with the ball.

· Dallas edge defender Micah Parsons leads the NFL with 78 pressures – mostly lining up across from right tackles. However, Parsons rushed off the other edge on 71% of his snaps in the previous game against the Eagles to avoid All-Pro RT Lane Johnson. Parsons had 6 pressures in that week 9 game.

· The Cowboys will once again move Parsons to the other side across from LT Jordan Mailata, who has surrendered 21 pressures in the last four games after allowing 21 pressures in the first 8 weeks of the season.

· Dallas CB DaRon Bland leads the NFL with 8 interceptions but had also gets beat a lot and has allowed 1.31 yards per cover snap (69th). Bland could leak an explosive play across from wide receiver AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith. Brown has 17 forced missed tackles (5th) and Smith has 9 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards (9th).

· Our model favors Dallas by 3.9 points, with a predicted total of 52.0 points, but the Cowboys rating has been enhanced by their habit of beating up on weaker teams, which they’ve faced a lot of. Dallas is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS against teams they’ve faced that currently have a winning record and they’re 7-20 ATS in the Dak Prescott era when coming off a win and facing a team with a winning record (5-19 ATS when not favored by 7 or more in those games). I used Philly +3.5 in my pool but would have used Dallas at -3.