Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

GREEN BAY (-5.5) over Oakland

The Packers squeaked out a win on Monday night despite terrible receiver play. Allen Lazard was the lone bright spot with 4 receptions for 65 yards and a game-saving touchdown. Davante Adams is the crucial cog in the offense as Green Bay’s other wide receivers have combined to gain less than 1 yards per route run. Furthermore, Jimmy Graham is the only tight end with more than 150 routes and less than 150 yards this season. Aaron Rodgers could struggle with Adams on the sideline versus Oakland’s 10th-rated pass defense and the running backs are unlikely to carry the load. The Packers are 1 of 10 teams to target running backs on at least 25% of passes but the Raiders are allowing only 5.5 yards per target to opposing running backs (5th). Green Bay’s ground game ranks 9th led by Aaron Jones, who is averaging 0.25 avoided tackles per rush (5th), but it will be difficult versus Oakland’s 7th-rated rush defense.

The Packers have an excellent defensive line with Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith both ranking in the top 10 in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders and Kenny Clark’s 26 pressures ranking 4th among interior defenders. However, the Raiders offensive line is underrated – ranking 4th in pass blocking efficiency and averaging just 1 holding penalty per game (3rd-fewest). Oakland’s offensive line could improve with right guard Gabe Jackson potentially making his season debut this week. The Raiders may be able to protect Derek Carr but I don’t trust the dink-and-dunk quarterback to move the ball versus coordinator Mike Pettine’s aggressive defense. Tight ends are a crucial part of Jon Gruden’s offense and Carr is targeting tight ends on 39% of his passes, which would be the highest rate of the last 5 years if it weren’t for the Ravens. Darren Waller is gaining 2.51 yards per route run (3rd) but he will be limited by a Packers defense allowing only 5.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends (2nd) with excellent new safety Adrian Amos.

It’s strange to say, but I don’t think Green Bay’s offense will be able to move the ball if Devante Adams is unable to suit up. The Packers defensive line may be limited but the pressing secondary should take care of any threat posed by Derek Carr. Historically, there has been no evidence teams coming off a bye have an amplified rest advantage versus teams the played on Monday night – although the Over is 73-36-4 in such games. Our model makes Green Bay a 6.8-point favorite with Adams out for Green Bay (which I think will be the case) with a predicted total of 49.6. The model likes the over and the scheduling trend favors the over as well but the matchups favor the under so I’ll pass on the total.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Packers

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.8 36.2
Succ Pass Plays 52.2% 47.8%
Sack Rate 4.2% 5.0%
Int Rate 1.6% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 13.8% 22.3%
Big Pass Yards 27.5% 52.7%
NYPP 6.6 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 27.6 24.6
RB YPR 5.0 3.4
Stuff Rate 16.5% 28.1%
Succ Rush Plays 51.0% 46.6%
Big Rush Yards 41.8% 26.1%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 3.4

Game

All Snaps 61.4 60.8
Early Down Succ 52.4% 48.4%
Succ Rate 51.7% 47.9%
Big Yards Rate 34.9% 49.8%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.8 28.4
Run Ratio 44.6% 40.8%
Starting Field Pos 26.4 27.3
Game Control 0.1 -0.1

Points 20.6 24.6

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DEN	24 – 16 W	9.5	65.4% / 50.0%	0.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.0 / 7.3	46.4% / 52.2%	14.3% / 26.1%	3.5 / 4.1	54 / 57	51.3% / 52.3%	55.6% / 50.9%	40.3% / 58.1%	6.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 40.4%	29.0 / 21.8
2	KC	10 – 28 L	-8.3	46.3% / 56.5%	7.3% / 4.3%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.3 / 9.4	52.6% / 36.4%	26.3% / 36.4%	6.8 / 1.4	60 / 68	48.9% / 49.1%	48.3% / 50.0%	38.4% / 62.3%	5.1 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.5%	31.7% / 32.4%	25.3 / 26.2
3	@MIN	14 – 34 L	-15.9	52.6% / 47.6%	10.5% / 0.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.6 / 8.3	45.0% / 55.3%	15.0% / 7.9%	4.4 / 5.6	58 / 59	54.5% / 54.2%	50.0% / 52.5%	29.1% / 55.8%	5.2 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 64.4%	22.3 / 28.4
4	@IND	31 – 24 W	10.8	43.8% / 34.8%	3.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.9 / 5.8	46.9% / 47.8%	21.9% / 34.8%	5.9 / 3.5	64 / 69	46.0% / 36.7%	45.3% / 39.1%	38.5% / 45.7%	5.9 / 5.0	1.6% / 1.4%	50.0% / 33.3%	23.5 / 28.7
5	CHI	24 – 21 W	4.6	53.1% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	7.2 / 5.7	64.1% / 41.2%	5.1% / 35.3%	4.3 / 2.5	71 / 51	61.4% / 50.0%	59.2% / 47.1%	28.1% / 27.1%	5.6 / 4.6	2.8% / 0.0%	54.9% / 33.3%	32.0 / 31.7

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	10 – 3 W	2.9	40.0% / 34.0%	14.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	4.7 / 4.2	22.7% / 40.0%	36.4% / 26.7%	2.1 / 3.1	57 / 65	39.5% / 41.7%	33.3% / 35.4%	53.1% / 38.2%	3.7 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	38.6% / 23.1%	30.9 / 22.7
2	MIN	21 – 16 W	9.0	44.4% / 30.3%	5.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	5.3 / 6.8	54.5% / 55.6%	21.2% / 18.5%	4.4 / 7.3	69 / 60	54.7% / 44.7%	49.3% / 41.7%	32.5% / 65.6%	4.9 / 7.0	2.9% / 3.3%	47.8% / 45.0%	28.5 / 28.7
3	DEN	27 – 16 W	7.3	37.9% / 45.7%	0.0% / 17.1%	0.0% / 3.4%	8.1 / 4.6	52.2% / 60.5%	17.4% / 13.2%	3.3 / 3.9	52 / 73	50.0% / 52.7%	44.2% / 53.4%	45.2% / 40.0%	6.0 / 4.2	0.0% / 2.7%	44.2% / 52.1%	36.3 / 26.0
4	PHI	27 – 34 L	-0.2	48.1% / 55.6%	1.9% / 0.0%	1.9% / 0.0%	7.7 / 5.9	55.0% / 69.7%	30.0% / 6.1%	3.9 / 5.3	74 / 60	50.8% / 67.3%	50.0% / 63.3%	39.5% / 31.3%	6.6 / 5.6	1.4% / 0.0%	27.0% / 55.0%	21.0 / 31.9
5	@DAL	34 – 24 W	14.0	41.7% / 53.2%	5.6% / 6.4%	0.0% / 6.8%	6.0 / 9.4	55.2% / 66.7%	17.2% / 14.3%	4.1 / 5.8	65 / 68	54.9% / 61.7%	47.7% / 57.4%	52.5% / 62.3%	5.2 / 8.3	0.0% / 0.0%	44.6% / 30.9%	31.7 / 23.1
6	DET	23 – 22 W	-5.8	40.0% / 40.0%	2.5% / 8.6%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.9 / 6.9	62.1% / 40.0%	3.4% / 30.0%	5.9 / 2.8	69 / 55	53.6% / 45.0%	49.3% / 40.0%	49.0% / 58.9%	6.5 / 5.4	2.9% / 0.0%	42.0% / 36.4%	21.0 / 33.2

Oakland Raiders @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Oct 20

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis