Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (35) – NY Jets (-3) vs NY GIANTS

· It looks like it’ll be another week before the Giants get back starting quarterback Daniel Jones and starting left tackle Andrew Thomas. Backup LT Justin Pugh has allowed 4 sacks in two starts off the street in place of Thomas and will likely be exploited by the Jets’ defensive ends.

· Pugh is a natural guard but being forced to line up at left tackle results in another game for LG Mark Glowinski, who ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Jets interior defender Quinnen Williams has 25 pressures (5th) and he will wreak havoc across from Glowinski.

· Giants RT Evan Neal has surrendered a league-high 29 pressures, and he will struggle across from edge defender John Franklin-Myers, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· The Jets defense cleared cornerback Sauce Garnder and cornerback DJ Reed to suit up this week. Gardner is conceding 0.77 yards per cover snap (9th) and Reed is allowing only 0.80 yards per cover snap (10th).

· Tyrod Taylor will throw between the numbers to avoid Gardner and Reed. Giants TE Darren Waller is gaining 0.25 EPA/target (7th) and the Jets are allowing a 64% success rate to tight ends (28th). However, the rain in East Rutherford will slow down both passing offenses.

· Saquon Barkley will be contained as a receiver as the Jets’ defense is conceding a 38% pass success rate to running backs (9th).

· Giants’ interior defender Dexter Lawrence’s 8 pressures were 2nd-most in the NFL last week. Lawrence lined up across from Commanders C Nick Gates, who ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency. Lawrence will have another favorable matchup in this game versus Jets C Connor McGovern, who ranks 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· The Giants have a 50.2% blitz rate (2nd-highest) and Zach Wilson will need to get the ball out fast to counter interior pressure. The Jets are averaging 49% more yards per attempt against the blitz than a standard pass rush this year (2nd-largest gap), which is the one concern with the over.

· Jets WR Garrett Wilson has a 48% target share when Wilson is blitzed, and he will line up against Giants rookie cornerback Deonte Banks.

· The Jets are targeting running backs on 23.1% of passes (4th-most) and we will see Wilson also throw to RB Breece Hall on screens versus a Giants defense surrendering a 48% pass success rate to running backs (25th).

· Our model favors the Jets by 0.1 with a predicted total of 29.0 with -3.5 points adjusted for the bad scoring conditions.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 34 points or more.