Game Analysis

Note: The Miami Under was released as a 1-Star Best Bet when the total was 39 earlier in the week and now the total is down to 35.5 with Tyreke Hill being scratched. The Under is still a 1-Star Best Bet at 35 or more with Hill being out added to the model and with wind still in the high teens with gusts into the low 30s expected.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (39 -115) – MIAMI (-8.5) vs NY Jets

· We had a Best Bet on Under 41 in the game between these teams just three weeks ago and lost due to the interception return on the Hail Mary at the end of the first half (one of two pick-sixes in that game). The Dolphins and Jets combined for just 554 yards in that game, which projects to just 37 points.

· There is value on the under again, even with the total being two points lower, as winds in the mid-teens are expected in Miami this Sunday. Scoring conditions are expected to be 3 points worse than they were in week 12 when the Jets hosted Miami.

· The Dolphins passing offense will be hampered by the wind and head coach Mike McDaniel will go to the ground game that is averaging 0.03 EPA/rush (2nd). However, the running will be contained as New York’s defense that is conceding only a 34.7% rush success rate (4th).

· The screen game might be Miami’s only option if the winds are strong enough. Tua Tagovailoa is targeting running backs on 23.3% of passes (5th-most) but RB De’Von Achane will be limited as a receiver as the Jets are conceding a 37% pass success rate to running backs (7th).

· The Dolphins offensive line will likely be without three starters as C Connor Williams left the last game after just six snaps with a serious knee injury that ended his season. Jets interior defenders Quinton Jefferson and Quinnen Williams rank 7th and 10th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency. The two will wreak havoc across from backups Robert Jones and Liam Eichenberg, who’s banged up himself with a calf injury.

· Zach Wilson’s protection won’t be any better as Miami’s defense has a 41.2% pressure rate (5th-highest) and New York’s offensive line ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Jets WR Garrett Wilson had 108 receiving yards in last week’s win versus the Texans, but he will be shut down by CB Jalen Ramsey, who is conceding just 0.72 yards per cover snap (5th).

· Ramsey on the field empowers Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to devote more attention towards stopping the run and Miami is allowing a 30.8% rush success rate (2nd) since the Pro Bowl cornerback first suited up in week 8. The Jets gained only 2.9 yards per carry on Black Friday against Miami, and they won’t be able to run the ball again this week.

· Our model favors the Dolphins by 7.0 with a predicted total of 32.0 points and the matchups favor the Under.