Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (36.5) – LAS VEGAS (pk) vs NY Jets

· The Jets are basically playing with two downs as New York’s offense has a historically low 22.1% third down conversion rate. No offense has had a lower conversion rate than the Jets since they started keeping track of the stat in 1978.

· New York backup RT Billy Turner surrendered 3 sacks last week and it could get worse on Sunday night as he is dealing with a hand injury that head coach Robert Saleh described as “concerning”. Maxx Crosby’s 53 pressures lead the NFL, and he will wreak havoc versus whomever the Jets have at right tackle.

· Raiders’ cornerback Marcus Peters, who is allowing just 6.8 yards per target with 4 pass breakups this season, is going to play after being listed as questionable earlier in the week. He should do a good job of containing New York WR Garrett Wilson.

· The Las Vegas offensive line conceded only 1 pressure last week and they rank 3rd in pass blocking efficiency this season.

· The Raiders should be well suited to contain a Jets pass rush with a 44.7% pressure rate (2nd-highest) but the concern will be at right tackle where Jermaine Eluemunor has surrendered 5 sacks (4th-most). New York edge defender John Franklin-Myers ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will line up across from Eluemunor.

· Jets cornerback DJ Reed is conceding 0.61 yards per cover snap (7th) and cornerback Sauce Gardner is allowing 0.67 yards per cover snap (9th). The pair will battle on the outside against Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, who are both among the 23 qualifying wide receivers with a success rate above 54%.

· Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is gaining 1.47 yards per route run (7th) but the All-Pro will be shut down as New York’s defense is conceding only a 33% pass success rate to running backs (3rd).

· Our model favors the Raiders by 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 32.6 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 36 points or more.